Time for an update on macro and technicals as we are navigating through the complex market fog of war in 2022 and I’ll throw in some observations on psychology as well for […]

Having fun yet? Worst H1 start to a year since 1932. A macro picture as complex as we’ve seen in all our lifetimes and central bankers stumbling to fix their mistakes of […]

Time to ask a pertinent question at this stage of our macro journey: What if? No, not the ‘what if’ of the various worst case scenarios that are currently being propagated all […]

Yesterday markets made new lows for the year accelerating to the downside following up on the 3rd most negative start to a year through April in history. Yesterday on my Twitter feed […]

On January 2 I stated: “the party is rapidly coming to an end and the Fed will want to curb inflation without causing a recession which will be a real task. How […]

I trust you all had a good and safe holiday season. Before I’m handicapping the 2022 market casino with its head and tailwinds I want to document some key market truths that […]

Investors are ignoring 2 big elephants in the room. While we see yet again a positive reaction to the latest Fed meeting with new all time highs in the $ES futures contract […]

“Sometimes I wonder if the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it” – Laurence Peter After months and months of […]

Bears are crying as markets are again making new highs following the September trend breaks. Yet perhaps they should be rejoicing for crying bears and a backtest of a broken trend is […]

As markets have continued the non stop levitation to new highs they become ever more untethered from basic market history and I want to highlight one interesting example. But first for context: […]

Things are coming to a head. Things are changing rapidly if you pay close attention. As you know I’ve been hammering on the Fed for overdoing it on the liquidity front causing […]