Unemployment at 3.8%, earnings growth at 26%, Q2 GDP growth pegged at a solid 4% or so, $NDX and small caps making new all time highs week after week. Markets ignoring all potential bad news (i.e. potential trade wars, political drama, etc) and volatility again crushed with no signs of fear or concern with a record corporate buyback program to the tune of $650B offering a consistent bid under the […]
All fear has left markets again as markets have rallied steadily into early June. $VIX has printed an 11 handle again, tech and small caps are making new highs. Optimism is back in full swing and right here and now bulls are coming out in full swing. Notably Tony Dwyer of Canaccord Tenuity appeared on CNBC Fast Money last night and highlighted his reasons for raising his S&P target to 3,200 by […]
Some general chart observations for this Memorial Day weekend: Welcome to the chop zone, the place where the conviction of both bulls and bears get tested as markets relentlessly ping pong in a tight price range for often weeks on end. It’s a day trader’s environment and requires flexibility. One may also refer to a chop zone as a consolidation phase, many times occurring before the next move higher or […]
I received a lot of questions on yesterday’s Charts that make you go: Hmmmm. That’ll teach me to post charts without commentary 🙂 Hence let me offer some perspective on some of these charts and I want to hone in specifically on volatility, or rather the great dying we’ve just witnessed. In the most recent weeks all fear appears to have left markets again and volatility has compressed to tight […]
A couple of weeks ago I outlined the $SPX zone of 2705-2750 as a potential rally target to fill some open gaps (Market in Transition). Since then we’ve seen several rallies that have gotten $SPX close to the 2750 area and that area may still be reached. Analyzing markets is a bit like watching an orchestra perform. If all the instruments are perfectly aligned and in tune it can be […]
Can markets extend and sustain new gains without a new free money carrot coming their way? Since the financial crisis bad news hasn’t mattered as markets always had the next free money carrot to look forward to courtesy central bank induced low rates and QE. 2017 was the icing on the cake marked by record global central bank intervention and a large US tax cut resulting in record low volatility […]
What if you have a record earnings party and nobody shows up? That’s precisely the dilemma seemingly faced by the financial sector. Despite many bank stocks reporting record earnings so far (due to tax cuts) their stocks are nowhere near record highs. Worse, many of these stocks show larger potential topping patterns that require one solution, and one solution only in order to not be bearish and that is: Bank […]
Following the exuberance in January and subsequent corrective actions in February and March and now into April there has been a lot of speculation that markets may have topped in this cycle or are in the process of topping. While earnings are expected to hit record highs in 2018 due to the recent tax cuts much uncertainty has crept into markets due to concerns of reduced liquidity offered by central […]
A bull market requiem: Following the financial crisis the world needed coordinated structural solutions (and those would be hard requiring tough choices). Instead what the world got was coordinated central bank intervention which shrunk the middle class, made the rich richer and provided the rest with the illusion that things were getting better as pro forma unemployment rates shrunk and housing prices rose again and stock markets jumped from record […]
Note: Below is the Daily Market Brief sent to clients on Sunday March 25 prior to futures open assessing technical risk levels and directional strategy in context of high volatility and uncertainty for the coming days as we approached markets from the long side following last week’s correction. A Sunday Brief today instead of a Monday brief tomorrow as a lot could happen between futures open tonight and tomorrow open […]