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Market Analysis

Lying Highs

Who are you going to believe? The data or the lying highs? This summer markets have again ignored all negative news. Be it trade issues, be it indictments and drama on the political front, you name it. Turkey, Venezuela, Argentina, Italy, Brexit troubles, emerging markets, China, who cares? 5 months of straight gains with little volatility not only retesting January highs, but making new index highs in the process. And […]

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The Bull Case

Welcome to August. In recent days I’ve been beating the drum about tech stocks and a potential peak emerging there (see Tech Alert and Peak Tech?) and so far the action still points to that possibility. However I also want to keep a close eye on the bullish side of the equation both from a technical as well as a macro perspective. The reason I’m bringing this up now is […]

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Peak Tech?

Big earnings reports this past week with some notable stock reactions, especially in technology. Recently, ahead of earnings, I issued a technical alert regarding the tech sector. Below please find a video analysis following up on the recent report. Related Reading: Tech Alert   For the latest public analysis please visit NorthmanTrader. For our market products please visit Services. All content is provided as information only and should not be taken as […]

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Tech Alert

The $NDX keeps moving from new highs to new highs driven by a narrow group of stocks. Nothing new about that as this trend has been ongoing for some time and headlines of new record prices for such stocks such as $FB, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT are now a daily occurrence. The untouchables. Jeff Bezos is worth $140B, no that was so last week, now he’s worth $150B. How do you […]

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Market Mysteries

Unemployment at 3.8%, earnings growth at 26%, Q2 GDP growth pegged at a solid 4% or so, $NDX and small caps making new all time highs week after week. Markets ignoring all potential bad news (i.e. potential trade wars, political drama, etc) and volatility again crushed with no signs of fear or concern with a record corporate buyback program to the tune of $650B offering a consistent bid under the […]

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Bull Rebuttal

All fear has left markets again as markets have rallied steadily into early June. $VIX has printed an 11 handle again, tech and small caps are making new highs. Optimism is back in full swing and right here and now bulls are coming out in full swing. Notably Tony Dwyer of Canaccord Tenuity appeared on CNBC Fast Money last night and highlighted his reasons for raising his S&P target to 3,200 by […]

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Chop Zone

Some general chart observations for this Memorial Day weekend: Welcome to the chop zone, the place where the conviction of both bulls and bears get tested as markets relentlessly ping pong in a tight price range for often weeks on end. It’s a day trader’s environment and requires flexibility. One may also refer to a chop zone as a consolidation phase, many times occurring before the next move higher or […]

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Volatility Crossroad

I received a lot of questions on yesterday’s Charts that make you go: Hmmmm. That’ll teach me to post charts without commentary 🙂 Hence let me offer some perspective on some of these charts and I want to hone in specifically on volatility, or rather the great dying we’ve just witnessed. In the most recent weeks all fear appears to have left markets again and volatility has compressed to tight […]

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Charts That Make You Go: Hmmmm

A couple of weeks ago I outlined the $SPX zone of 2705-2750 as a potential rally target to fill some open gaps (Market in Transition). Since then we’ve seen several rallies that have gotten $SPX close to the 2750 area and that area may still be reached. Analyzing markets is a bit like watching an orchestra perform. If all the instruments are perfectly aligned and in tune it can be […]

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Market in Transition

Can markets extend and sustain new gains without a new free money carrot coming their way? Since the financial crisis bad news hasn’t mattered as markets always had the next free money carrot to look forward to courtesy central bank induced low rates and QE. 2017 was the icing on the cake marked by record global central bank intervention and a large US tax cut resulting in record low volatility […]

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