Having fun yet? Worst H1 start to a year since 1932. A macro picture as complex as we’ve seen in all our lifetimes and central bankers stumbling to fix their mistakes of […]

Time to ask a pertinent question at this stage of our macro journey: What if? No, not the ‘what if’ of the various worst case scenarios that are currently being propagated all […]

Yesterday markets made new lows for the year accelerating to the downside following up on the 3rd most negative start to a year through April in history. Yesterday on my Twitter feed […]

On January 2 I stated: “the party is rapidly coming to an end and the Fed will want to curb inflation without causing a recession which will be a real task. How […]

I trust you all had a good and safe holiday season. Before I’m handicapping the 2022 market casino with its head and tailwinds I want to document some key market truths that […]

Investors are ignoring 2 big elephants in the room. While we see yet again a positive reaction to the latest Fed meeting with new all time highs in the $ES futures contract […]

“Sometimes I wonder if the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it” – Laurence Peter After months and months of […]

Bears are crying as markets are again making new highs following the September trend breaks. Yet perhaps they should be rejoicing for crying bears and a backtest of a broken trend is […]

As markets have continued the non stop levitation to new highs they become ever more untethered from basic market history and I want to highlight one interesting example. But first for context: […]

Things are coming to a head. Things are changing rapidly if you pay close attention. As you know I’ve been hammering on the Fed for overdoing it on the liquidity front causing […]

Following all time highs last week markets actually also got to within an inch of a complete breakdown. Again. And again they were saved in the nick of time with the predictable […]