It’s coming. And don’t kid yourself into believing it won’t. It happens in every cycle. The economy comes out of a recession, things recover (these days with the help of central banks) and the cycle ultimately morphs into unrealistic positive expectations about the future and optimism reigns supreme as unemployment drops to cycle lows and corporate profits look great. We just had this phase in 2018 on the heels of […]
We’re in one of the longest economic expansion cycles in history and nobody’s happy. It’s mind blowing. You’d think 2018 would have people dancing in the streets. 3.7% unemployment, record stock market prices. Well the latter until recently that is. So let me rephrase: What happens if you have record buybacks, record dividends, and record earnings but 89% of assets yield a negative return in US dollar terms? No really […]
So stocks dropped a little in October. Ok they actually dropped a lot and all of a sudden the S&P 500 was miles away from the all those optimistic 3,000+ year end targets. And what happens when stocks drop hard? Bulls cry for the Fed to come to the rescue. It was quite the scene. Here’s the global market cap wiped off in just October: $8 TRILLION. Poof. Gone. The […]
“Buy every dip” they told you all summer. Bull after bull came out and told people to buy the dip. That worked well, no really, it worked. The move to new highs looked impressive. In the headlines. And in some indices and in some stocks that is. It didn’t work in many others. At all. In fact many indices have been an absolute horror show technically and never made new […]
Here’s my challenge: Drop 20 pounds by the end of the year and I encourage anyone interested to join me and follow my journey here as I’ll be documenting my process and progress. Why put it out in public? Well, for one, failure is not an appealing option if you put it out in front over 55,000 twitter followers. Oh the humiliation! 😂 No, more seriously, I know a lot […]
Don’t shoot the messenger: The next recession is unavoidable and is programmed into everything we see right now. In fact, recent tax cuts may end up being the trigger of this next recession and that reality may slowly be dawning on some market participants. Hence I call it the Tax Cut Recession. Let me walk you through the evidence. Firstly let’s start with a macro chart which I think is […]
Hey guys, Mella here: Technical analyst. What a load of hocus pocus. One can draw trend lines anywhere, or at least that’s what I get told by many tweeters. A horse is given blinkers to ensure they remain focused, peripheral vision basically so that they don’t run off course. The same applies to trading. But focus is key along with a good eye and those simple trend lines can turn […]
My take: Consumer debt is a massive problem. There are people that don’t see it that way. I think that’s a mistake and I’ll outline my case here with some charts/thoughts and you are of course free to draw your own conclusions. I don’t think it’s an accident that markets have been reacting negatively to yields spiking. And it’s also not an accident that home sales are dropping in the […]
With apologies to the Dire Straits: Now look at them yo-yo’s that’s the way you do it You play the bull on the fin TV That ain’t workin’ that’s the way you do it Money for nothin’ and stocks for free After 9 years of artificial liquidity drenching markets the same game continues in 2018: It’s raining money. Again. Still. Last week we saw the standard script of the last 9 […]
Oh I love Fed chatter. Always provides an opportunity to read between the lines. Fed minutes aside what do you really think? Here’s a string of headlines that came across today, and you tell me, how confident are these guys: “Fed’s Kaplan: Bulk Of Impact From Tax Cut To Be Felt In 2018 KAPLAN SAYS U.S. MAY NEED TO MORE ACTIVELY CONSIDER WAYS TO REDUCE U.S. GOVERNMENT DEBT GROWTH FED’S […]