Markets have been so void of corrections for so long it’s no surprise most people are a bit rusty on how to navigate through the jungle. Recognize that the rules have changed for now. Where before every single dip was bought now rips are being sold and volatility is raging up and down through price ranges while bears and bulls duke it out. Still, heeding the signals, participants can take […]
The S&P 500 is internally broken. You don’t see it in price yet, but you can see it in the internals. For weeks I’ve been outlining my concerns of narrow leadership in markets including in late January before the big correction in The Narrow Rally and even this week in Tech Cracks before the resumption of weakness this week. The correction and subsequent bounces have deepened these concerns. Why? Because […]
The market has a big junk problem and it’s very evident when taking a close look at the chart of $JNK, the high yield bond ETF. It’s been a brilliant technical indicator as of late and was one of the signals employed in fading the rally earlier in the week. Note that $JNK has been on a steady uptrend for the better part of a year when suddenly it made a […]
I like monthly charts, especially in context of trends, trend lines and key moving averages such as the exponential 5 EMA. February saw the first serious correction since early 2016 and it came on the heels of record optimism and technical extensions. Below are some select index charts and observations I’d like to share. Firstly, the big story in February was yields, specifically the 10 year and the break above […]
It’s been a while since I posted some $VIX charts. We talked about Volatility Rising before the big pop in early February. Ever after the $XIV ETF combusted $VIX appears to have been trading at more elevated levels. Even the recent big rally has not calmed it down enough to retest breakout range despite many stocks making new highs. Perhaps it is reflective of the cracks appearing underneath the market […]
Bulls are back to dining at the “V”, the magic quick dip correction that never happened. The price action appears massively bullish, yet the data underneath is not at all. Instead it appears more associated with bull market end times. The final thrashing about which we’ve seen several times before. After all the tops of 2000 and 2007 were marked by a sudden acceleration in volatility and sudden corrective moves […]
This was a very interesting week and it provided plenty of 2 way action for traders. From a technical perceptive last week we discussed the relevance of the 21 day moving average as a point of key resistance for markets. And sure enough the entire week was marked by repeated pings and rejections of this moving average which I highlighted in MA Rejects and pointed out repeatedly on twitter: $ES […]
In Weekend Charts I talked about the 21MA rejection we witnessed on $SPX on Friday. Looking at today’s market action we see a divergent market with $NDX green and the rest of the market struggling as internals are decidedly negative. A quick glance at major index charts shows that the $SPX is not the only index to struggle with key moving averages (MAs). As long as these MA’s are not […]
‘Keep it simple stupid’ (KISS) Mella always tells me, especially the stupid part 🙂 Hey, turns out you can teach an old dog new tricks. The simple part of the equation over the past 2 weeks was to listen to the oversold readings and wait for the bounce to unfold. Last weekend we discussed the double bottom scenario and its likely implications: “Should the current double bottom on the $ES […]
Correlation does not imply causation, but who ya gonna believe, me or your lying eyes? Look, we’ve had a classic bounce off of the 200MA following heavy oversold signals. If you stayed short or shorted at or near the lows you didn’t pay attention to the signals. Stocks were massively oversold and a reconnect bounce was coming and OPEX week always makes for a good time to do just that. […]