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Markets – Macro – Stocks – Charts – Alerts – SetUps

Market Analysis

Volatility Rising II

This week we witnessed a sudden spike in volatility as markets underwent their first pronounced drop in 2018. This spike was well signaled in advance as the charts suggested it was coming. Just last week I spoke about it in Volatility Rising: “Volatility remains historically low, but have you noticed the rising tide? Volatility has been rising even as markets have been making new highs…. In 2017 these recent market […]

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The Narrow Rally

It’s not only that this rally has gone parabolic, it is that it is getting ever more narrow and that is virtually guaranteeing a misstep on this tight path it has embarked on. Note the underlying issue: We’ve gone from no 5% pullbacks, to no 3% pullbacks, to no 1% pullbacks. Heck, we can’t even get 0.6% pullbacks: The result: The rally is not only parabolic, but it is as […]

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Weekend Charts: Jan 27

Introduction: Consider Weekend Charts as an ongoing follow-up to my 2018 Market Outlook. I’ll be sharing high level technical observations on a weekly basis whenever possible. For other public analysis please see the latest posts on NorthmanTrader. For our market services, including technical SetUps, please visit Services. Last week stocks continued on the same program they have been on since the beginning of the year and the consistency of the action is […]

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Volatility Rising

Volatility remains historically low, but have you noticed the rising tide? Volatility has been rising even as markets have been making new highs. We’ve seen this before in the mid-’90s so it may not necessarily be a bad thing for markets. Or it may mean a lot. After all the entire advance since the February 2016 lows has been accompanied by volatility compression. The $VIX has remained in its well defined […]

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King Dollar Comeback?

Poor dollar. Keeps getting beaten to a pulp. And no one seems more excited than Treasury Secretary Mnuchin who declared a weak dollar to be “good for the US”. Of course central bankers have been using the currency destruction method for years, but now the baton has apparently been passed to the US Treasury. Those European vacations will be pricey this summer. Unless the dollar makes a comeback. Can it? […]

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2018 Corrective Risk Zones

Some may consider the analysis below a fruitless exercise in this relentless tape higher, but I’m outlining some technical corrective risk zones for when the tape turns. I’ll keep this simple and focus on specific technical pivots/triggers. This is different from specific levels although the pivots will imply levels when the time comes. As we are in a melt-up phase the levels will change but not the pivots and that’s […]

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Weekend Charts: Jan 20

Introduction: Consider Weekend Charts as an ongoing follow-up to my 2018 Market Outlook. I’ll be sharing high level technical observations on a weekly basis whenever possible. For other public analysis please see Market Analysis and/or videos. For more detailed analysis, including technical SetUps, please visit Services. Markets continue to be driven by record ETF inflows and FOMO. As I’ve pointed out on twitter the $SPX is following an extremely well defined sturture […]

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When Bulls Go Wild

Once upon a time, a long long time ago in markets far away, stocks actually went down on occasion. Soon, next week actually, we’ll see headlines that we’ve entered the longest period in history without a 5% drawdown. When bulls go wild you get charts like this: FTSE All World Index $FAW: And when stocks don’t go down FOMO (fear of missing out) happens. People throw all caution to the […]

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Tech Charts: AAPL AMZN GOGL FB

This post is an update/follow-up to the tech videos I posted late last year. If you haven’t seen them you can watch them here. The story remains principally the same, little to no corrective activity and continued new highs with one exception. Without further ado here’s the rundown: $FB: $FB made new highs but experienced a drop into its 100MA where it has currently found support: This support is confluent […]

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Technical Analysis: $SPX

Please find below a technical analysis of the S&P 500 ($SPX) reviewing charts on multiple time frames. The review is aimed at identifying upside potential and downside risk from a swing trade perspective and is provided for informational & educational purposes only. To view the presentation in PDF see: Technical Analysis – $SPX – PDF For our market products please visit Services. All content is provided as information only and […]

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