Markets are in technical trouble and only sustained new highs across the board can avert a larger summer/fall correction. And time is running out as the traditional positive seasonal window will come to a close in the April/May time frame. At this precise moment in time we’ve seen a familiar refrain I raised in Market Paradox. $NDX made a new high while key other indices such as the $DJIA did […]
Quick post here to follow up on some index charts I posted this weekend in “Who’s Lying?“. I’ll just post the index charts below, you have the context in this weekend’s article and can make up your own mind 🙂 For the latest public analysis please visit NorthmanTrader. For our market products please visit Services. All content is provided as information only and should not be taken as investment or trading […]
It was a good week to be bullish and the buying was ferocious and on the surface it appears that bulls won a major victory and bears look to have flailed again. Correction over. New highs on Nasdaq with $SPX recapturing all key moving averages including the 50MA, the 21MA, the weekly 5EMA and all is looking rosy again. Next week bullish OPEX, a sheepishly dovish Fed again the week […]
What Correction I asked yesterday as many key stocks and indices don’t show any correction on longer term time frames so quickly came the bounce erasing virtually all losses. But the quick recovery brings about concerns that can be described as a market paradox. Firstly note that the $NDX, led by the usual suspects, is actually near all time highs. Tech continues to be strong and if you’re coming from […]
What correction? 3 weeks until the end of the quarter. We’ve had a big correction in this first quarter or at least so it seems and markets continue to ping pong in a range between the January highs and February lows for the moment. Yet if you look at quarterly charts there is hardly any evidence that a correction has even taken place. Seriously? Seriously. I’ll walk you through some […]
Oh he’ll never admit it of course, but let’s face reality: The ECB cut its QE program in half In January and European stocks have never been the same. It’s almost as if stock performance is somehow influenced by how much artificial liquidity is being pumped into markets. But this is not the point of the article, rather I want to highlight some technical considerations for the $DAX in particular […]
Note: This is the Daily Market Brief issued to clients on Monday March 5, 2018 before market open, outlining our market strategy and outlook for the coming week. I’m sharing it to highlight how markets can be approached analytically in context of uncertain market times and high volatility. Note: $SPX closed at 2786 on Friday. The environment remains foggy and very much unclear. We bought the weakness last Friday and […]
Markets have been so void of corrections for so long it’s no surprise most people are a bit rusty on how to navigate through the jungle. Recognize that the rules have changed for now. Where before every single dip was bought now rips are being sold and volatility is raging up and down through price ranges while bears and bulls duke it out. Still, heeding the signals, participants can take […]
The S&P 500 is internally broken. You don’t see it in price yet, but you can see it in the internals. For weeks I’ve been outlining my concerns of narrow leadership in markets including in late January before the big correction in The Narrow Rally and even this week in Tech Cracks before the resumption of weakness this week. The correction and subsequent bounces have deepened these concerns. Why? Because […]
The market has a big junk problem and it’s very evident when taking a close look at the chart of $JNK, the high yield bond ETF. It’s been a brilliant technical indicator as of late and was one of the signals employed in fading the rally earlier in the week. Note that $JNK has been on a steady uptrend for the better part of a year when suddenly it made a […]