Market Analysis 
2017 Market Outlook
Welcome to 2017. According to Wall Street it will be a fairly straightforward affair of a continued bull market with little corrective risk along the way. They may be correct of course as artificial liquidity by global central banks continues to flow at record levels and the incoming Trump administration has promised more free money… Read More ›
2016 Market Review: Party Hardy
In the era of fake news and artificial liquidity why even bother writing an epitaph on what could be described as one of the oddest years in recent memory? Precisely because dialectic truth appears sorely missing in the public narrative, but such is the nature of bubbles. In fact, it was the lessons of 2007 when… Read More ›
Caution: Protection Required
Negativity has been replaced by positivity, any sense of caution has been thrown to the wind, bullishness is pervasive and bears look like idiots. In short: All the conditions one wants to see if one is interested in a market fade or at least in getting some protection. On December 4 I suggested new highs on markets were a… Read More ›
Fake Out
Right at the time when markets were making new highs recently I mused whether this rally was based on hot air. I wanted to follow-up on this assessment in light of the recent small pullback and provide an update on some of the technical signals. The bottom line: The technical evidence appears to build on the “hot… Read More ›
Empty Promises
Markets have been on a tear since election night. The principle reason: The perceived notion of another set of stimulus packages hitting markets during the next presidency. Specifically the notions of corporate tax cuts and increased infrastructure and military spending have sent financial and industrial stocks flying higher resulting in new highs on many indices…. Read More ›
Time to Get Real: Part III
In this third part of our 3 part series (see Part I: Central Banks & Part II: Fundamentals) I’ll be discussing the technical picture and my emphasis will be on longer term charts. The shorter term set-ups, levels, direction, strategy etc. are discussed in our Daily Brief. Given what was outlined in Part I &… Read More ›
Time to Get Real: Part II
In Part I of this series I discussed central banks and their policy actions in context of macro trends including secular growth stagnation, demographics, and technology and highlighted why the math doesn’t work. In this Part II I’m aiming to analyze the underlying fundamentals to discern the substance of our economic reality currently and going forward. In Part III I’m taking a… Read More ›
Time to Get Real: Part I
In a world where fair value is a central bank veiled enigma it’s frankly a challenge to keep things real, but I’ll have a go at it in what will be a 3 part series covering central banks, the underlying fundamental picture, and a technical assessment of charts. In this part I’ll be covering central banks and putting their… Read More ›
