Markets – Macro – Technicals

Market Analysis rss

Caution: Protection Required

Negativity has been replaced by positivity, any sense of caution has been thrown to the wind, bullishness is pervasive and bears look like idiots. In short: All the conditions one wants to see if one is interested in a market fade or at least in getting some protection. On December 4 I suggested new highs on markets were a… Read More ›

Fake Out

Right at the time when markets were making new highs recently I mused whether this rally was based on hot air. I wanted to follow-up on this assessment in light of the recent small pullback and provide an update on some of the technical signals. The bottom line: The technical evidence appears to build on the “hot… Read More ›

Empty Promises

Markets have been on a tear since election night. The principle reason: The perceived notion of another set of stimulus packages hitting markets during the next presidency. Specifically the notions of corporate tax cuts and increased infrastructure and military spending have sent financial and industrial stocks flying higher resulting in new highs on many indices…. Read More ›

Time to Get Real: Part III

In this third part of our 3 part series (see Part I: Central Banks & Part II: Fundamentals) I’ll be discussing the technical picture and my emphasis will be on longer term charts. The shorter term set-ups, levels, direction, strategy etc. are discussed in our Daily Brief. Given what was outlined in Part I &… Read More ›

Time to Get Real: Part II

In Part I of this series I discussed central banks and their policy actions in context of macro trends including secular growth stagnation, demographics, and technology and highlighted why the math doesn’t work. In this Part II I’m aiming to analyze the underlying fundamentals to discern the substance of our economic reality currently and going forward. In Part III I’m taking a… Read More ›

Time to Get Real: Part I

In a world where fair value is a central bank veiled enigma it’s frankly a challenge to keep things real, but I’ll have a go at it in what will be a 3 part series covering central banks, the underlying fundamental picture, and a technical assessment of charts. In this part I’ll be covering central banks and putting their… Read More ›

Fatal Attraction

Still no break up or break down. The ping pong match continues as markets remain in range, but the tempting affair with new highs is again making the bullish pot stir following yet another rally toward the 2,100 level on the $SPX. The question is whether such an attraction will prove fatal as all new highs in the past 2 years… Read More ›

The Golden Key

Despite the large February – April rally stocks are down year over year (May 6 2015- May 6 2016). $SPX is down over 1%, the Nasdaq is down over 4% and small caps are down over 8%. On May 6 stocks closed basically where they were in the third week of March which implies they haven’t really… Read More ›

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