Markets Macro Technicals Sven Henrich

March Charts Part I

March 15, 2016

OPEX magic: $SPY

OPEX


$NYSI Weekly:

NYSIW


$BPSPX:

BPSPX


Nasdaq new highs versus new lows: Where’s the bull?

NAHL


$XLU trend line:

XLU


$SPX week updated:

SPX W.


Ryder Bull/Bear ratio & money flows:

BB


March 14, 2016

Charts by Mella_TA: $BPSPX & $SPX:

SPX D

BPSPX W


Guess what we tagged today? $SPY:

SPY


$XLF monthly:

XLF M


$NYAD versus $SPX:

NYAD


Latest Market Analysis here: Nifty 50

M1 money supply printed a new all time:

M1


$VIX:

VIX


$SPX stocks above their 50MA:

SPX 50ar


March 13, 2016

Weekly charts below:

TRAN WLSH OEX NYSE W


March 11, 2016

$SPY gaps:

SPY


$VIX:

VIX


Some updated signal/sentiment charts:

NYHILO 50AR 200ar ny200ar NYSIW

AAII bears


Next week: OPEX, BOJ, FOMC. Nothing else matters. Front run time.

OPEX


March 10, 2016

Closing Print: 7 years after the financial crisis lows central banks across the globe are more aggressive than ever in trying to stimulate growth and inflation in every way possible except letting markets be markets.

Today’s ECB announcement was absolutely massive and yet was rejected as both the Euro and European stocks reversed.

Both the BOJ and the ECB seem to find no popularity with their aggressive policies. Next week the FOMC is to decide whether to raise rates again. So far the results are somewhat unimpressive.:

XLF


When a 210 handle rally and massive new QE can’t get you more new highs versus new lows what will?

NAHL


DAX updated:

DAX


$EUR/USD:

What if you’re a central bank and go all in and your currency still beats you?

EUR:USD


$TF futures:

TF


#BPSPX

BPSPX


DAX chart updated:

DAX


$ES and $YM futures post ECB:

YM ES


March 9, 2016:

Closing Print: Thursday’s price discovery is all about Mario Draghi and his ECB team. The stakes are big as #DAX has not been to able regain its broken trend line. Tomorrow’s pre-market futures will largely be driven by how successful Draghi is in impressing markets with more stimulus.

DAX


$XVG: Monthly chart suggests no failure allowed

XVG


$SPX monthly: Since last Friday $SPX has rejected the monthly 25MA and is flirting with the monthly 5EMA. What happens next seems to depend on Mario Draghi tomorrow.

SPX M


$NYHILO:

NYHILO


Is Mario coming too late this time?

$BPSPX:

BPSPX


All about Mario Draghi again tomorrow. He was the trigger for more upside in October. Can he repeat his magic? Markets certainly expect more stimulus:

Draghi


March 8, 2016

Closing Print: Oddly enough there are still people who don’t believe in technical analysis. We started the day with  a $RUT chart and here’s how the same chart now looks. QED:

RUTW


Cumulative $NYAD vs $SPX

Cum. $NYAD


$VIX:

$VIX


$BPSPX: First Blood

BPSPX


One key reason to love twitter: Learn and gain insights from others. Example: 2 aspects about the $RUT came my way yesterday. A key trend line sent to me yesterday morning by good friend Tim Knight ( @SlopeOfHope) and a McClellan oscillator I was unaware of (h/t @DonDraperClone). Putting it altogether with my modest contribution here:

Per oscillator the $RUT is at its most overbought ever just as it reached a key trend line as well as the weekly 20MA. The implication: Any downside from here and the weekly 50MA and 100MA above will print a potentially bearish cross-over:

RUTD

 

Is it relevant? Maybe, maybe not, but either way this index is extremely stretched for now and a renewed break below the weekly 200MA could have far reaching consequences:

RUTW

Does this all look familiar? You tell me:

RUTM


$NYHILO:

NYHILO


March 7, 2016

Closing Print: the magic always comes in the last few seconds. $SPX managed a close above 2000 with magic closing ramp. Small caps remain super strong and the battle for reconnect continues. The weekly 50MA looms above:

SPXW


$RUT & $WLSH: Monthly MA reconnects in context of larger technical damage:

WLSH RUT M


$BPSPX:

BPSPX


$VIX:

VIX


Bullish/Bearish allocation and money flows: Where are the buyers?

BB


Markets closed the week with the 2nd highest weekly $NYMO close ever:

NYMOW

The last time that happened? January 2009. The peak reading then was 121.86 following a 15% one month rally:

091

Then this happened:

092

No idea if we follow suit here, but this is the historic reference.


March 6, 2016

For a perspective on how to analyze markets structurally please visit: Grand Designs

$VIX and $OEX weekly

$OEX weekly $VIX W


March 5, 2016

Weekly charts below: $SPX, $DJIA, $RUT, $IBB

SPXW RUTW DJIAW IBB W

March 4, 2016

$SPX weekly: Another reconnect by tagging the weekly 100MA:

SPXW


$VIX:

$VIX


$ES post NFP:

ESD


$ES levels ahead of NFP:

ES


March 3, 2016

$NYMO weekly chart: A very rare print indeed:

NYMOW

Mella has put her unique spin on it 😉


Closing Print: The MA reconnect effort is continuing in mechanical fashion. Today the monthly 5EMA was tagged and the weekly 20MA is just above:

SPXW

How mechanical? Judge for yourself:

IWM


$ES:

ES


$VIX:

VIX


$DJIA monthly chart:

DJIAM


$TF: Highest RSI since November 2014:

TF


$YM weekly versus $DJIA weekly:

YM weekly

DJIA W


$NYHILO:

NYHILO


March 2, 2016

Closing Print: The magic happens into the close. The $RUT weekly chart shows a tag into the weekly 200MA:

RUTW


$DJW, Dow Jones Global Index: Tagging a key MA:

DJG


An over 10% rally off the lows and still Nasdaq has not managed to have a single day with more new highs than new lows in 2016:

NAHL


$TRAN: Just rallied 7 weeks straight up into the weekly 20MA:

TRAN


$BPSPX:

BPSPX


$VIX:

VIXD


$NYMO has reached over 90 which represents a highly overbought level. However, more amazingly, if you look at $NYMO through the lens of a monthly chart there is no evidence of any correction ever having taken place in 2016. No red whatsoever:

NYMOM


March 1, 2016:

For weeks we have been talking about the big MA reconnects. Well, here they are, massive rally to start the month (just like last month) and $SPX reconnected with its monthly 5 EMA ( in after hours of course). The January open gap remains a target, whether it can get there on this run is an open question:

SPX M


$ES hit its .618 fib today:

$ES


$BPSPX: Magic!

BPSPX


$OEX monthly MA cross updated:

OEX

OEX20


$NYSI: Let’s just observe we’re not oversold any longer and this is the moment in time when bullish voices are again dominating the media landscape:

NYSIW


$ES:

ES

The material on this website is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof, and is subject to change without notice and does not constitute investment advice.
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