January Charts Part II
January 31, 2016
Note: I was tempted to write a larger public analysis, but have opted to make it a nice family day today. Priorities. But briefly some thoughts & charts below.
I like monthly charts. They don’t help me with the day to day trading, but they help inform about the larger roadmap. For example, the recent close of the $SPX below its monthly 5 EMA indicated that the long held uptrend was undergoing a major shift. Given the severe sell pressure in January the monthly close was of keen interest to me and Friday’s big rally ended up creating some of the usual magic by saving some things that seemed broken during the month.
In summary then some key takeaways from January:
- For several index charts the monthly 50MA proved key support.
- The lows of October 2014 and 2015 once again proved pivotal support, this support remains unbroken for now.
- Key negative MA crossovers that occurred during the month were averted by the timely BOJ intervention on Friday. In short: Magic.
- In some cases key trend lines were saved or new potential trend lines emerged that leave, to this observer anyways, the ultimate direction still open.
What should be clear to everyone: Markets remain under stress and central banks are active trying to prop things up with either action and/or words (see BOJ on Friday) and bulls have a lot to prove and the only acceptable proof will be a sustained closing above the January gap.
Februarys have a shoddy record, they can be either really good or really bad with most being weak. February of 2008 was horridly choppy (see 2008 analog charts further below). And all indications are that chop will be the name of the game for the foreseeable future.
Select monthly charts that jumped out at me:
January 30, 2016
Incidentally a couple signal charts came in hot on that 50 handle Friday ripper:
When in trouble ring a central bank. This time it was the BOJ that blinked first with action to reduce rates to negative, although the ECB and FOMC are busy trying to jawbone in the meantime. So nothing has changed on that front, yet there’s no denying that January has inflicted technical damage in stocks and index charts despite Friday’s magic month-end markup rally. January saw vast volatility with very broad daily ranges often exceeding 30-60 handles to the upside and downside offering traders extensive opportunities to trade in both directions.
Still the move higher was within expectations of MA reconnects as we saw a move to reconnect with the daily middle Bollinger bands (the 20MA) and weekly 5EMAs. The positive divergences I’ve outlined here over the past few weeks have so far made for a playable rally.
If anything 2016 promises to continue on the high volatility front which is great for traders. As for investors it’s been a real rough start to the year.
Some weekly charts below (I’ll post some monthlies tomorrow):
January 29, 2016
Nice follow through on the $ES inverse I’ve been positing. Also $SPX started testing its weekly 5EMA. Much resistance ahead, but the positive divergences sent a signal to keep buying weakness:
Well I’ve been posting it for days on end and if you traded it you banked, spooky as it is, but here it is:
Stocks are FAR from overbought:
Month end, mark-ups, negative rates oh my. $ES pattern still intact unless invalidated. $FB staying in trend:
January 28, 2016
Closing print: Much ado about nothing as markets tread in range. Close above daily 5 EMA, with a slight MACD cross. GDP and BOJ before market open virtually guaranteeing another big gap open:
A fascinating chart: Daily high/lows
Cumulative $NYAD is improving:
$IBB weekly: Total breakdown
$ES: Symmetry and pattern outlined yesterday, but needs a move above 1907:
$NYSE rejected at resistance. Internals have been improving:
January 27, 2016
Closing Print: Outside day after inside day. Rejection at .382 fib. No MACD cross-over. Yet.
$NYAD versus $SPX: market moving toward making a decision:
$ES: A come to Jesus moment for bears?
$SPX: Close above current levels suggest bullish MACD cross-over coming. Your move Janet.
Updated signal charts.
January 26, 2015
Closing Print: Analog continues. $AAPL and FOMC next:
$DJIA monthly chart. 3.5 days left in the month:
$SPX weekly: Sellers need new lows or this structure pattern could take over:
Overnight pattern building. $ES $NQ:
January 25, 2016
$AAPL needs to recapture $105 by month end or risk a visit down to $87….
$VIX vs $SPX: History may not repeat itself but it rhymes…
$BKX banking index: key time
$SPX closed above its daily 5 EMA and 8 MA on Friday. MACD has yet to cross over. Fib levels indicated:
January 24, 2016
Some signal/sentiment charts:
January 23, 2016
January 22, 2016
2008 analog update:
$SPX weekly chart. Big bottoming candle with a perfect tag of the weekly 200MA. More charts this weekend:
$BPSPX daily chart:
$DJIA monthly: Ding!
Weekly bottom candles in progress? $SPX $CL. Let’s see how they close the week.
January 21, 2016
Closing Print: Analog still fits. Bulls want a close above the elusive daily 5 EMA. Friday’s have been weak as of late. But then most days have.
$SPX weekly, below all key MAs and all starting to narrow. Without a very fast rally above these MAs will eventually cross over each other:
This is how many $NDX stocks closed above their 50MA:
$IWM has not closed above its daily 5EMA once in 2016. Will today be the day?
How intense was yesterday’s selling? THIS intense:
Mind you this is a monthly chart and the month is not over, but it gives a perspective to consider.
January 20, 2016
Well, if you are a fan of analogs, January 2016, so far, is seemingly following a very familiar script. Spooky:
Watch that hammer: $IWM
$NYAD weekly. You have to see it to believe it:
Transports crash off the charts ($TRAN):
$NYAD vs $SPX
Latest market analysis here: Pendulum Swing
$DJIA monthly. Overnight $DJIA hit its monthly 50MA:
New lows overnight on further selling in crude.
Updated signal charts from last night’s close:
January 19, 2016
The Good: Potential higher low versus Friday & wide range to trade for gains to book.
The Bad: Not a single close above the daily 5EMA hence no change in trend so far.
The Ugly: Internals continue to stink up the joint. Thanks crude oil.
$IWM Reality check:
The daily 5EMA remains a major point of resistance and rejection. The daily RSI remains stuck in the mid 20’s. Unless $IWM can close above its daily 5 EMA the trend remains down. It hasn’t managed to do it once in 2016 which is an amazing feat.
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