January Charts Part I
January 16, 2016
$NDX stocks above their 50MA: The 3rd worst weekly close ever. Ever is a long time.
I’ll share more details later this weekend, but here’s a stunner chart: The weekly close of high/lows. This week’s close matches in severity the low closes in 1998 and 2001 and was only surpassed a couple of time in depth in 2008. Still this week’s close was worse than any weekly close in 2009:
Utter stock carnage everywhere, but what if I told you that M1 money supply made a new all time high in January?
January 15, 2015
Panic headlines everywhere today. But watch what they do not what they say.
And what did they do? They gap filled the $VIX and bought the hell out of small caps:
$NYAD versus $SPX in 2016:
$VIX: Ding ding, ding…
Oi. Something is happening today that hasn’t happened since 2008. Two key monthly moving averages are crossing each other. The monthly 5 EMA and the monthly 25 MA. This has happened only twice since 2007.
The last time it happened on the bearish side was in 2008. On the bullish side the cross came in late 2009. In both cases however it confirmed a change in trend.
The month is not over so until then it is not confirmed. In both previous cases markets had a counter move in store first, it is a monthly chart after all.
However, should this cross confirm this market is on notice that things have changed. Big time:
That loud cracking sound you may have heard may be the shattering of what’s left of the Fed’s credibility after today’s shockingly weak economic data. Again.
But hey, it’s a correction.
The one element we have been missing all week: Fear. We may just get it now with a potential $VIX tag into the 30s:
January 14, 2016
How to catch a 50 handle rally?
The noise always gets loudest at the extremes. Yesterday & this morning the calls were getting ever more bearish. Crash, $SPX 550, bear market on and on and on. Always makes for tough trading if one gets too caught up in it.
We didn’t and stuck to Mella’s roadmap (along with our signals), and she was kind enough share it publicly with her extreme buy zone. Here from January 8:
$SPX roadmap update pic.twitter.com/8qiJBbd58d
— Mella (@Mella_TA) January 8, 2016
As we approached the price zone and trend line Mella’s hackles were up and here’s what she said last night and this morning in our member feed as the voices for lower prices kept getting louder:
The result: 50 handles booked. And that, at the end of the day, is what matters.
One element that was oddly missing from the September lows were lower prices in conjunction with a higher RSI, in short a positive divergence, the key common ingredient of prior major lows.
Well look what just happened with the $NYSE today the weakest of all the indices. So the question must be asked: Are we witnessing a major bottom being made?
The AAII Bull/Bear ratio reached a level that has marked its peak bearishness 5 times in the past 11 years. Each time markets rallied afterwards, either for a short term rally or for an extended rally:
$NYAD Cumulative: First uptick in 2016:
$NDX stocks above their daily 50MA:
$SPX closed below its weekly 150MA. First time, long time. A rare event. Previous events are circled.
Also $SPX tagged its lower trend line:
$ES shows a small potential double bottom on the 4 hour. Fib levels below:
Buyers have a lot to prove here.
January 13, 2016
Updated signal charts:
$NYMO and $NYAD
Crunch time for US and global markets:
$IWM: An interesting visual compared to the August correction:
Amongst all the doom and gloom everywhere perhaps a small list of things that haven’t broken (yet):
January 12, 2016
Amazing. 7 days without a 5 EMA reconnect on the $IWM. Very rare and I presume this has never ever happened during the first part of any year. Historic times:
Yet $IWM did close green and $SPX made some progress, but the MA disconnects remain wide:
Crude needs a bid.
$BKX Banking Index. A valley of tears since the Fed’s rate hike.
Updated signal charts:
Indices correct into key MA support levels and now we hear of calls to sell everything. Hm.
January 11, 2016
$SPY: 6 days consecutive disconnect from daily 5 EMA and a black candle closing print:
$RUT daily RSI hit a level today never before seen in a January but more commensurate with historic Fall corrections:
$NYAD vs $SPX
$DJIA: So we had a rate hike…
$ES battle for trend line control. This trend line dates back to 2011:
January 10, 2016
Keeping it simple: Bulls MUST fill and get above last week’s weekly, monthly, and yearly gap or it’s all over:
To crystallize the issue: Here’s the updated $XVG chart highlighted in last week’s 2016 Technical Outlook:
January 9, 2016
Per request: Some signal charts and an update on the “arch”:
Weekly $NDX stocks above their 50MA:
Daily $SPX stocks above their 50MA:
$RSP vs $SPX:
More charts tomorrow, but below are some weekly charts to ponder. I’ve also included an updated OPEX chart for reference. Special member daily brief coming out on Sunday for members before futures open.
January 8, 2016
Closing Print: $ES closed at the lows of the week which was began with a runaway gap and never looked back. Multiple unfilled gaps below and an RSI of 27.83. This doesn’t happen often and usually not in January, but here it is. OPEX next week.
$TRAN making a higher low:
Index carnage: $DJIA and $IWM:
January 7, 2016
$ES daily RSI hit 30. All eyes on China again tonight.
OPEX chart updated:
Oh dear $RUT:
$RSP and $JNK updates, could be potential positive divergences:
$SPX weekly hit its 125 MA a key support pivot in the past:
$XVG: Why it may be make or break time for this market:
China, China, China. Soros.
For us, just charts:
$ES: RSI getting to low 30
DAX: potential positive RSI divergence:
January 6, 2016
Closing Print: China devaluation & PMI misses, H-bomb test in N. Korea, crude dropping every day, Wall Street position bearish notes, and today Dennis Gartman calling for a bear market. It’s all so gloomy.
But then it’s the week before OPEX. You know the script. Play it again Sam?
$VIX: Lower high so far today:
$NYAD: key time
Well, Mella’s directional chart from Monday had you on notice that new lows we still likely. And we certainly got those overnight:
$SPX daily roadmap (cos I’m feeling generous) pic.twitter.com/nhhZvnMkzb
— Mella (@Mella_TA) January 4, 2016
As for $ES the new lows came with a positive divergence on the 4 hour chart. Whether lows stick remains to be seen. Lots going on. We are watching multiple support levels.
January 5, 2016
Closing Print: $SPX inside day. 2nd day without a 5EMA touch. Markets remain in range:
$TRAN: Below monthly Bollinger bands. Hasn’t happened in a long time. The channel is pervasive. Similar events have resulted in an eventual snack back rally.
Paging $AAPL bulls. What am I missing?
Markets continue to act very technically. Yesterday’s .50% fib support was met by .382% fib resistance:
In context we remain in range, but below key MAs:
#DAX has been very weak, but sports a positive divergence on the 4 hour for now:
January 4, 2016
One just can’t overstay their welcome short with a $NYAD -2,300+ (see earlier chart). Nice long ramp into close and ultimately it was all about support and the 50% Fib. 2022 now major resistance. Market remains in pattern range. Hell of a 1st day in 2016:
$RSP equal weight:
$BPSPX and $NYAD
As discussed this weekend 2016 is shaping up to be a year of vast possibilities and increased volatility. For reference here’s the link to the analysis:
2016 Technical Outlook https://t.co/bxZ988wusq $SPX $NDX $VIX $NYSE $XLF $AAPL $GOOGL $GS $AMZN $RUT $XVG pic.twitter.com/LOLHm3noIU
— Northy (@NorthmanTrader) January 2, 2016
And the action of the first trading day in 2016 certainly seems to confirm this notion: With China down 7% and #DAX down 4.5% overnight US futures are under severe pressure and are forming a nasty weekly, monthly and yearly gap down of size. This could be a very bearish signal for global markets, but has to be confirmed. For now the $ES remains in range:
A break of the lower support line would potentially target the open gap at $SPX 1950. But it hasn’t broken yet.
$VIX suggests potential further upside risk as well as $VIX futures are up over 10% in overnight trading:
Click here for previous 2015 Charts.