Markets Macro Technicals Sven Henrich

November Charts Part I

November 15, 2015

Monthly charts updated:

XLF

 

SPX M

NYSEM

WLSH M

 

 

XVGM

RUTM


$COMPQ chart from Nov 5 (see further below)

compq2nov5

Here’s the same chart from Friday’s close:

Nov15


November 14, 2015

Weekly charts below. I’ll post some updated monthly charts tomorrow. In light of the horrid attacks in Paris I’ll post a trade outlook for members before Sunday night’s futures open:

$SPX W

SPX W

IB B DJIA NDXW NYSE W RUTW

VIXW Div


November 13, 2015

Closing print: The .382 fib was hit and $VIX tagged its trend line and closed above the 50MA. More charts this weekend.

ESD

VIX

SPXS


$ES & $SPX:

SPX D $ES

Updated signal charts:

NYSIW

BPSPX NYMOD

NYHILO


Lots of weekly 50MA rejections. Today’s close kinda matters.

IWM W

SPX W

WLSH W

DJIA W


November 12, 2015

Maybe negative divergences matter after all. Suddenly nobody wanted stocks. If you have been following our charts here this move down was not a surprise. Mella’s pitchfork chart has just been stunning in particular.

SPX F SPX


$VIX:

$VIX


$ES house update:

$ES


$SPX arch update:

SPX


I find this similar behavior of $NDX right at the same price confluence of the year 2000 fascinating. More details can be found in: A Familiar Ring

NDX

Recent opens have been sold and a bear flag that has formed which was broken at close. We are gapping down this morning>

spy


November 11, 2015

Closing print: Divergences are widening with fewer stocks holding markets up. $SPX MACD remains on a bearish crossover with multiple support levels below:

SPX RSP


$XVG:

XVG


Our House $ES update:

ES


Signal chart update:

BPSPX

div


Oh dear. Someone MUST make new highs or else:

$OEX


Futures gapping up. 5EMA resistance ahead. Some people are just not buying this rally:

SPX

COMPQ INSAX


November 10, 2015

$SPX: Inside day on low volume with a MACD cross-over. ECB’s Draghi speaking before US market open:

SPX D


So. $AAPL:

AAPL


$ES. Our house is a very very very fine house:

ES


$SPX monthly updated:

$SPX M


Here’s your trend: $SPY

SPY


$NYAD moving toward short term oversold:

NYAD


Think the pullback is over?

NYSI

HILO


November 9, 2015

$VIX closed above 200MA. $BPSPX had its first red print. Did $COMPQ print a lower high on a negative RSI divergence?

COMPQ BPSPX $VIX D


$COMPQ update. Trend line tag from last week worked like a charm:

COMPQ


About those divergences (The Man Comes Around) …..here’s an update:

div


Back inside the arch with a potential MACD crossover coming: 2020-2117 now the battleground:

SPX Arch


$SPX pitchfork:

SPX F


It is different this time. Or is it? Example: $MSFT

Some keep claiming that buybacks matter little, but consider the recent news that $MSFT stock reached all time highs. While that’s true it also masks an inconvenient truth:

Going back to 2004, Microsoft has bought $136 billion in shares through June, Mr. Silverblatt’s figures show, reducing net share count by 26 percent. In December 1999, its market capitalization was more than $600 billion. Today, its market cap is only about $430 billion.

The actual result by market cap per Bespoke:

msftcap

And so yes one gets the illusion of new record value creation with fewer shares in circulation. Creative ways of changing the financial reporting structure can only help one presumes.

Incidentally, does this chart suggest things are really different this time?

$MSFT


November 8, 2015

Monthly charts:

COMPQ IBB NDX TRAN NYSEM AMZN MSFT GOOGL


November 7, 2015

Updated Fork:

SPX F

Weekly charts:

XLFW

XLU

RUT

NYSE

IBB

DJIA


November 6, 2016

$SPX defended price breakout above 2094 with 2 consecutive closes at 2,100. Bull flag pattern opens door to further upside as with DAX below, yet weekly rejection candle is of note. Bottom line, no decisive breaks one way or the other. These, however, can happen fast. The similar rally in October 2014 gave back 5 and a half weeks of price advance in just 1 week following its peak.

SPX W SPX D

DAX:

DAX


Yo. $JNK.

Screen Shot 2015-11-06 at 16.38.58


$SPX weekly candle not looking so hot at the moment:

SPXW


$ES date:

$ESD


Interesting zones of rejection and support in the last 2 days:

SPX D

COMPQ


November 5, 2015

Closing print: Buyers need new highs and sellers need to see a close below the daily 5EMA. Markets parked right on 2,100 in front of NFP tomorrow. Cue the gap:

SPX


There are 2 charts that keep challenging the “new highs are coming” narrative and they both point to the extremely narrow leadership of the rally: $XVG and $RSP. Either leadership needs to significantly broaden out or this rally is treading on extremely thin ice:

$XVG monthly

RSP


$COMPQ update:

COMPQ


The $VIX crossover (see Monday’s chart) had been signaling this move

VIX


QQQQ

200AR

ES


November 4, 2015

How Mella’s $SPX wedge chart closed:

SPX M


$SPY, $VIX, $FB

VIX SPY

FB


COMPQ


$ES:

$ESD


Junk staying junked:

jnk


Updated signal charts:

BPSPX NYSI BB RSP


November 3, 2015

Cheeky $VIX. MACD cross-over:

VIX

$SPY? Well, good luck with that:

SPY


$DJIA, a rally for the history books. 302 MACD; unprecedented, 1218 points above the 50MA or almost 7.1%:

$DJIA 302

Frame this chart too. $SPX 128 handles above its 50MA or 6.4% with MACD deviation at 32.45 matched only in 1998 and 2000:

$SPX DD


$SPY 70 RSI and $BPSPX 71.80:

SPY

BPSPX


$DJIA 1111 points above its 50MA with a MACD reading at 296. Frame it:

DJIAD


$ES is up almost 13% since the late September lows. What a rally.

ES

Yet, one can’t call it a broadly bullish level of participation.

Left behind examples:

BKX

XLU

WMT IBM


November 2, 2015

Mr. Market to Northy: You can take your symmetry arch chart and shove it.

Perhaps, but the week is not over and the weekly close will matter. With the largest MACD divergences since the 2000 top (over 30.5 now) and an over 6% disconnect from the daily 50MA there are a lot of unusual things going on. And the $VIX is starting to wonder as well it seems:

SPXD

VIX

We shall see. Stay tuned.


$SPX MACD divergence over 30, a level not seen since the 2000 top.

SPX D


$DJIA: Highest positive MACD divergence ever:

DJIA MACD


Updated signal charts:

HL 50AR HYG NYSI BPSPX


November 1, 2015

Monthly charts. Where is the bull?

IBBM WLSHM RUTM NYSEM NYA M SPXM

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