Markets Macro Technicals Sven Henrich

December Charts Part II

December 31, 2015

Closing Print: $SPX closed the year below the daily 5 EMA, 50MA, & 200MA, the weekly 8 and 50MAs and the monthly 5EMA.

Happy New Year 😉

SPX W


$BPSPX:

BPSPX


Month end today. Will they save the monthly 5EMA? Heads-up: I’ll post a more detailed technical analysis of the market this weekend.

$SPX M


December 30, 2015

$SPX: Closed just above the 200MA. And yes, right back at the arch we’ve been tracking all year:

SPX arch


$ES: Break up above trend line with potential bull flag opens the possibility of upper trend line tag as long as daily stays above daily 5 EMA:

ES


December 29, 2015

From Dec. 20:

…but given positive seasonality starting this week and the signs of oversold conditions in many individual issues, markets may still have a rally surprise in store at some point.

The need to mark-up year end performance was strong and this is finally what we got. Yesterday’s early morning weakness filled an open gap and the close above the daily 5 EMA paved the way for further strength. Low volume makes everything possible. Strong resistance ahead, 2 major unfilled gas below:

SPY


Some updated signal charts:

NYSIW NYMO NYHILO


December 28, 2015

Closing Print: $SPX defends its daily 5EMA on low volume. MA compression in a tight range on multiple time frames continues.

SPXD


$ES: Trend line ping pong. Resolution up or down coming to a market near you shortly.

ES4


December 27, 2015

Did the $SPY put in a soggy bottom in 2015? In September $SPY made a higher low versus August and a large rally ensued. Many have referred to it as a double bottom and lived happily ever after:

spy 2015

Yet as far as lasting bottoms are concerned this bottom is rather unusual compared with all the meaningful bottoms since 1998.

These lasting bottoms had a very defined structure: A lower low accompanied by a higher low in the RSI. The one exception: 2008. Of course 2008 turned out to be not a lasting bottom. 2008 was more of a classic double bottom. At least temporarily. But this 2015 higher low evidently does not fit the script at all:

SPY bottoms

If this bottom indeed turns out to be soggy than this market may turn out to be a market of constant sorrow in 2016:


December 26, 2015

State of affairs: We’ve seen a nice bounce into the holidays. Really not a surprise as it is seasonally consistent and many stocks are very oversold and fund managers are lagging in performance.

Yet on the macro front nothing has changed. Major index charts are struggling with the following key issues: Major trend lines remain broken, MACDs are weak, RSIs show negative divergences, and in many cases key weekly moving averages have not been recaptured. Worse, several charts continue to hint at large potential heads and shoulders patterns. I say “potential” since none of these patterns confirm until the necklines are broken.

Unless price break outside its Q3 price range this coming week, this 4th quarter will close as an inside quarter for the $SPX. Inside quarters are extremely rare and suggest that Q1 2016 will either see new all time highs or fall below the August lows. Fun. Or for real fun: Both! 😉

I’ll put out a more detailed analysis once we have the month, quarter and year concluded.

Select weekly charts below:

NYSEW

SPX W

OEX

DJIA WLSHW RUT

IBB

TRAN


December 25, 2015

Remember the positive divergence I pointed out in the cumulative $NYAD chart last Sunday?

Quite the follow through this week with the largest positive move since September/October:

NYAD Cum.


$SPX on 3 different time frames. Fans of the arch chart may get a chuckle out of where it finished on December, 24, 2015.  The Positives we outlined last weekend indeed got us a nice rally. Now the bottom line: 4 trading days left to break above MA resistance and/or recapture the broken trend line. Rejection here opens again the downside case, break above brings back the bull scenario.

For reference see also:

Get High or Else

The Bull Case

SPXM SPX W SPX


December 23, 2015

On Monday (Dec. 21) I posted that the trend line held and that a close above 2020 opens the door to a 2060 tag. We got this today. Have a nice holiday everyone!

SPX D


$VIX has tagged its trend line and $ES is heading toward its upper trend line:

ES4

VIXD


December 22, 2015

Closing Print:

$SPX closed above its 5EMA, $VIX tagged its 50 and 200MA and there’s major MA confluence at 2058-2062:

$VIX SPX DM


$NYSI weekly is now very oversold:

NYSI W


7 days left to save these charts:

DAX COMPQ SPXM $NYSEW

RSP


December 21, 2015

Closing Print: $SPX trend line held again. Close above 2020 $SPX could potentially target 2060 MA resistance:

SPX


$AAII bulls at the lowest reading since August:

AAII Bulls


$XLF. Financials have a key decision to make:

XLF


Channeling the $DJIA:

DJIA


For latest market analysis please visit: Some Positives

$ES has traded very technically the past few days perfectly tagging the upper and lower trend lines:

ESTL

Crude remains a disaster zone, but also continues to show a positive divergence:

CL


December 19, 2015

Nasty 2 day sell-off following the Fed’s first rate hike in almost a decade. But the price action over the past year has been following a trend. A trend which seemingly is now ignored on Wall Street as all analysts are calling for higher prices in 2016. In fact, most seem to have simply transferred price targets not reached in 2015 into 2016. But then none of them warned of a 10% drop in August either. Stay long they said, never mind that over 75% of $NYSE stocks are below their 200 day moving average.

But what are the charts saying? The charts are saying that new highs are needed and needed fast.

Because unless markets make new highs soon 2016 may turn out to be a crying game for most investors. The key theme: Massive heads and shoulders patterns and broken trend lines with price targets far below their current levels if the patterns break their necklines.

The good news for investors: There are still a few days left in 2015 and positive seasonality begins next week. Maybe there will be some magic. And magic may just be what’s needed looking at these charts below. As we outlined on Friday (see further below). Bulls need to recapture 2,100 on the $ES pronto.

AAPL

GS WLSH DJIA W RUT NDXW TRANW NYSE W SPX W


December 18, 2015

Closing Print: Looks like a rounding top, walks like a rounding top……..

SPX arch


Runaway trend line: Why bulls need the $ES to run above 2,100 before year end.

ESW


$SPX weekly: That is one unhappy weekly candle. Bulls need some juice into close or this could turn into a gravestone doji..

SPXW


A positive divergence: Insider buying versus $SPX:

IN SAX


Signal charts:

USHL NYHILO

BPSPX


Overnight $ES tagged its .618% Fib and $SPX filled its gap just above 2020. Happy quad witching day:

ES


December 17, 2015

Bearish engulfing close with a 50% fib retrace. Santa MIA:

SPX ES


$AAPL weekly: That’s one scary chart:

$AAPL


$NYHILO: Below levels seen during the October 2014 correction

NYHILO


$RSP: Just pitiful

RSP


$GS: Didn’t exactly embrace the rate hike. Stuck between 50MA and 5EMA for the moment:

GS


$DJIA weekly: Think this trend line is important? Look where it rejected again this week:

DJIA W


$ES retraced to .382 Fib before bouncing:

$ES


$AAII showing a spike in bears:

AAII


$ES updated:

ES


December 16, 2015

Closing Print: $SPX weekly replaying December 2014 and $SPY appears to be on its standard OPEX schedule:

SPX W

SPY OPEX


$SPX arch update. Pre-Fed $SPX is 44 handles below December 2014 highs:

SPX


Uptick. First time, long time:

RSP


So far this week the $SPY has been pursuing its standard OPEX script it seems. What happens next may well be up to the Fed today. Structurally a very bullish set of patterns may be forming suggesting sellers can ill afford a dovish surprise from the FOMC. Bottom line: Sellers need new lows:

OPEX

$ES

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