Markets Macro Technicals Sven Henrich

December Charts Part I

Click here for previous 2015 Charts

December 15, 2015

Closing Print: $SPX monthly chart bounced from monthly 25 MA yesterday toward monthly 5EMA today. Both are key pivots. The FOMC has the ball tomorrow:

spx m


High/Low reading of -966 yesterday, commensurate with the October 2014 bottom:

HL


$IWM: Channel surfing

IWM


$SPY: Retagged key MAs:

SPY MA


$SPX weekly chart update. Look familiar?

SPXW


$VIX: Classic gap fill and rejection yesterday:

VIX


Updated signal charts:

NYSIW

NYMOD15

BPSPX


December 14, 2015

Fyi: If you missed:

A Word of Thanks

Get High or Else

$SPX monthly 25MA: Ding!

SPX M

Fortunately we had this area pegged last week:

Targets

And today’s low also matched Mella’s trend line target:

SPX MEL

No guarantees lows are in, but it was a nice probability long entry.


Equal weight vertical down: $RSP

RSP


Oil bouncing off of the lower trend line with a positive weekly RSI divergence:

CL


$VIX gap fill:

VIX


Overnight $SPX tagged 2000.50 and has bounced since then. For futures traders this was a great entry. So far markets are following November’s pre OPEX lows script. Whether this will continue remains to be seen.

As it stands $NYMO printed a rare weekly close of -80 on Friday. How rare? This rare:

NYMOW


December 12, 2015

In 2015 3 major themes have been evident in markets: Divergences, structures and scripts. If you have been following this blog for a while you have seen plenty of charts that have highlighted these themes. From the internal divergences we have been pointing out, to the well publicized OPEX structure, and a seemingly virtual repeating set of scripts independent of news, data, fundamentals, etc.

In regards to divergences I’ve summarized the most glaring concerns most recently here: The Evidence. And this week’s 90 handle drop in the S&P certainly seems to indicate that these divergences have finally mattered. Or are they just the latest trigger to let a repetitive script play out? After all, this week’s drop closely resembles the one of 2014. If you had been following the weekly chart we’ve been highlighting here week after week one had a sense that such a drop was coming.

In fact, Mella has highlighted downside risk and a drop coming toward $SPX 2000 for quite some time and most recently in the Bull Case. So frankly none of this has been a surprise and if you were able to benefit from the charts then great!

So here we are completely oversold on the week before OPEX with a Fed meeting just ahead of the standard Santa rally with 75% of $NYSE stocks below their 200MA and the $NYMO in negative 90 territory. Coincidence? I’ll let you decide.

So either we will see a repeat of the script and structure or an August type of event may be in front of us still. Yet even 2007 had a rally into the holiday season following a rough start in December. Either way what should be clear is that the FOMC wanted their first rate hike to be a success. At the moment it looks like a mess. But then it always seems to be before the magic this bestowed on markets during a Fed and OPEX week. We shall see.

Below please find a follow-up of some of the key charts we have been tracking in this technical chart segment and some of the analysis here on the site.

Finally, we’d like to thank everyone who voted for Mella and I (@northmantrader & @Mella_TA) in the twitter poll. And if you didnt vote we still very much appreciate the interest and are glad to hear what we do adds value for so many of you.

Charts:

SPX W

arch

2014

NYSE200 SPX 200 NYMO iv BPSPX

VIX

December 11, 2015

$SPX monthly updated:

SPX M


$SPY OPEX Chart:

SPY


$HYG vs $SPX: Reversal?

HYG


$NYAD:

NYAD


$TRAN:

TRAN


Positive Divergence $SPX:

SPX RM


$VIX:

VIX


$HYG: Free Falling:

HYG


$SPX. Major MA compression just ahead into the Fed meeting and OPEX next week. Markets made new weekly lows in futures markets on  Friday ahead of OPEX:

MAs


December 10, 2015

Teamwork: Super volatile markets. How to be navigate them? Mella and I are increasingly work as a team and I’m loving it. She’s the chartist with the best level calls which gives me a great sense where to enter trades with confidence especially when signals line up.

And example from yesterday and into today as we closed shorts and flipped to long, but were looking for the right levels, but also knew when to scale out. Mella warned of new lows coming, gave levels of support. When the level hit I executed the trade (while she was at Church for a school event) and this morning we had 2065/66 pegged as key resistance and took out a scale and then hedged. Teamwork. I like it.

MellaNorthy

As for today: Some nice rally, but also another reversal. Small caps in particular need to break their recent receptive bear flag pattern to show progress toward the upside:

IWM


$VIX: Given seasonality sellers may run out of time, but the $VIX suggests a potential pattern that may achieve gap fill in the days to come still:

$VIX


$BPSPX: Bear flag has played out nicely, yet still no sign of real strength:

BPSPX


$OEX: So far yesterday’s corrective move has found support at the monthly 5EMA and 8MA:

OEX


$SPY: Defended golden cross area so far:

SPY


Potential positive divergences on new $SPY lows yesterday. $NYMO closed at -57.

HYG HL

RSP

JNK

NYMOD

December 9, 2015

Yo. OPEX:

OPEX


$COMPQ busted its trend line:

COMPQ


$IWM:

IWM


$SPY: Golden cross intraday

SPY


ES


68.2% of $NYSE stocks are below their 200MA:

NYA

Over 52.4% of $SPX stocks are below their 200MA:

200


December 8, 2015

Closing Print:

Divergences continue and despite weakness across the board elements of tech remain strong. However, the $COMPQ needs a rally soon to keep defending this ascending trend line:

COMPQ

$SPY:

Major confluence below:

SPY


$TRAN:

TRAN


$VIX:

$VIX


Some futures charts:

crude DAXW ESW ESM NQ100 TFW


December 7, 2015

Closing print: $SPX keeps printing lower highs on the descending part of the arch. Buyers need to change this dynamic or risk further downside on a break below the 50MA:

PX A


Markets are respecting long standing trend lines and these are currently key battle zones for $SPX and $DJIA:

SPX M

DJIA


What $AAPL and $GS weekly charts have in common:

AAPL GS


$BPSPX signaled problems with Friday’s rally:

BPSPXD


$IWM. That rally from Friday? Gone.

IWM


$NYAD -1776

NYAD


Some signal charts from Friday’s close. 63% of $NYSE stocks are below their 200MA:

BPSPX NYA 200

HL

December 6, 2015

Seasonal squeeze coming or not, but all these monthly charts have one very distinct message: This market is one small pullback away from major technical damage and hence buyers need to prevent it at all cost. Yet looking at the monthly charts of $MSFT, $AMZN, & $GOOGL for example raises a key question: Is the risk/reward worth it to chase it here?

SPXM

NYSEM

NDX M

XLFM  WLSHM TRANM  OEXM

XLFM

AMZN GOOGL MSFT


December 5, 2015

Weekly Charts updated (Risky Business edition):

SPXW

SPXWW

SPX 200W

tc

RUTW

NDX NYSEW

WLSHW BPSPX

XVG

tc2


December 4, 2014

No matter what happens, $SPX always comes back to the same price. With ever fewer stocks. It’s quite a feat:

SPX

$JNK:

JNK

$RSP equal weight:

RSP


$BPSPX:

BPSPX


Hello arch, my old friend:

SPX


No comment necessary: $SPY

OPEX


December 3, 2015

Regular readers know we’ve been warning about negative divergences and evolving structures of concern. We wanted to share some additional thoughts and charts today as today’s action was pretty pivotal. It’s not every day one sees a central bank cutting rates, adding stimulus and produce a near 5% sell-off as we saw in the DAX for example. The reversal in the Euro was massive and caused lots of damage for those wrongly positioned.

But here’s the thing: None of this has really been a surprise and was in the charts.

Here’s Mella (Chart Lessons from a Pain in the Ass) calling this all perfectly again. Here on November 30:

SPXM1

Then on Dec 1 calling out resistance:

Res

And the yesterday she smelled the rat:

T1

T2

Well here’s the chart now:

SPX M2

Remember the pitchfork (see further below for previous version)

pitchfork

and $VIX:

VIX

The weekly script we have been tracking suggests next week may see further downside although a bounce on Friday may also be in the cards first:

SPX W

This same script also suggests another rally into late year. May all well be possible, but however you cut it or slice it there’s trouble brewing in some of these charts:

NDX

TRAN

Negative divergences may not matter for a long time, but when they do they will matter a lot. And this market is the most divergent I can recall seeing. More charts tomorrow.


$SPY:

SPY


$NDX: uh oh

NDX


$SPX arch updated:

SPX R

$COMPQ put in a negative divergence yesterday:

COMPQ


Cumulative high lows versus $SPX:

USHLC


December 2, 2015

Closing print: Outside reversal day for $SPX bringing it back into range of the past 9 days. Price drop was contained by renewed $VIX resistance at the 200MA. Mario Draghi up tomorrow before open with perhaps more stimulus:

SPX

$VIX


$NYAD update. Price played catch up to earlier red flag warning:

NYAD


$NDX. Just wow:

NDX


$SPX pitchfork updated:

SPX F


Your internals today:

NYAD


$SPX: The big picture

SPX W


$XVG (the equal weight geometric index) closed November below its monthly 5EMA. Were $SPX to produce new highs it would come on a massive negative divergence vis a vis this index:

XVG


$DAX and $ES ahead of Yellen and Draghi:

DAX ES

December 1, 2015

You have to see it to believe it: $SPX is repeating the exact price level and structure pattern from the same time last month:

SPX


Today $SPX is trading exactly where it traded in December of 2014. The structure remains eerily similar:

SPX W


$BPSPX:

Screen Shot 2015-12-01 at 15.35.08


We closed November virtually flat. Here’s what monthly charts are suggesting: If there are new highs to come they will likely print major negative divergences. If no new highs are coming then major trend lines remain broken. Historically this would suggest sizable downside to be a risk factor for the market. Maybe Janet and Mario can prevent this from happening. Maybe not:

NDXM NYSEM RUTM SPXM WLSHM


Some observations on $SPX: The last 2 days of November virtually mirror the last 2 days in October both in structure and in price. How bizarre is this?

SPXD

Most of November’s price recovery was achieved with 2 ramp days. Most other days were either down or flattish. The final 7 days of the month $SPX stayed in a tight range. Both MACD and RSI are basically flat lined.

Click here for previous 2015 Charts

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