Occam’s Razor: The simplest explanation is often the best explanation. In this case: The Fed panicked in December and by caving to markets reignited the bubble in a major way and now […]
The Fed Is the Bubble
Get Real
The final phase of a bull cycle is the most deceiving. It is the time when things are at their best, optimism runs wild, equities can do no wrong and any warning […]
The Danger Charts
$SPX keeps lingering near all time highs only perhaps a headline or two away from jumping above last September’s peak reading of 2940.91. Tech keeps ramping along its wedge pattern irrespective of […]
Fragmented
Are societies becoming hopelessly fragmented to the point that democracies are no longer functional as compromise solutions become impossible? Is technology tearing us apart? What are the consequences? Big questions and probably […]
Mismatch
Oh dear. People are embracing the bubble and, as it happens in every bubble, fantastical narratives are emerging to justify the valuations and the price momentum as folks cannot square reality with […]
Outside Days
Patterns. Signals. Always worth watching for technicians. When you see them you want confirmation. Today markets threw a very specific signal that is as of this writing unconfirmed, but it’s notable and […]
Lying Highs II
Does history rhyme? We will only know in hindsight, but here’s what I’m seeing: Negative divergences galore on new highs. In fact it all reminds me very much of what I saw […]
Perspective
Lots of “melt-up” talk these past few days. Today Larry Fink of Blackrock suggested the risk for stocks is for a melt-up as opposed to a meltdown. The rationale: Underinvested cash that […]
Mind The Gaps
Bears are rapidly losing the will to live, underinvested bulls are desperately waiting for a dip, any dip, to emerge to buy and the most complacent are rewarded with handsome gains. Welcome […]
Combustion
This is all going to end badly, even some ardent bulls will freely admit this, the question is the how, when and the where. Frankly it’s a tragedy that’s unfolding and discerning […]
Icarus Warning
At the beginning of March I issued a warning about $BA when the stock was trading at $441. The stock has dropped over $70 since. Of course I could not have known […]
Theater of the Absurd
The lowest job claims in 49 years coupled with the loosest financial conditions in 25 years, yet the Fed panic stopped all rate hikes following a 20% market drop and for all […]
