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NorthmanTrader

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Tag Archive for ‘markets’

Market in Transition

Can markets extend and sustain new gains without a new free money carrot coming their way? Since the financial crisis bad news hasn’t mattered as markets always had the next free money carrot to look forward to courtesy central bank induced low rates and QE. 2017 was the icing on the cake marked by record global central bank intervention and a large US tax cut resulting in record low volatility […]

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Bull Market Requiem

A bull market requiem: Following the financial crisis the world needed coordinated structural solutions (and those would be hard requiring tough choices). Instead what the world got was coordinated central bank intervention which shrunk the middle class, made the rich richer and provided the rest with the illusion that things were getting better as pro forma unemployment rates shrunk and housing prices rose again and stock markets jumped from record […]

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Correlation Watch

Correlation does not imply causation, but who ya gonna believe, me or your lying eyes? Look, we’ve had a classic bounce off of the 200MA following heavy oversold signals. If you stayed short or shorted at or near the lows you didn’t pay attention to the signals. Stocks were massively oversold and a reconnect bounce was coming and OPEX week always makes for a good time to do just that. […]

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Powell ain’t Yellen

When police try to solve a crime one of the key tasks is to determine who benefits from the crime. The beneficiary of a crime is not necessarily the perpetrator, but motive goes a long way to narrow the circle of potential suspects. Who benefitted from this sudden aggressive sell-off aside from anyone who was positioned short? Certainly not hedge funds that capitulated long in January with their highest long […]

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Seas of Change?

The post below is an excerpt of notes Mella sent to clients this week. I think it’s too good not to share: Some observations on the recent market action. What defines a bull market? Price clearly, it goes up right, and remains fairly stable. Volatility is low and up we go. We have been in a strong bull market since 2009 lows as we know and have noted the US […]

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Shutdown Nonsense

Government shutdowns make for stirring headlines, but usually only for a few days. The history is pretty clear: The government doesn’t remain shut for long and usually one side or both sides cave on whatever the issues of the day are. If anything, government shutdowns are a pitiful exercise of both sides blaming each other and then, within a few weeks, it’s all forgotten. That is not to belittle the […]

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Singularity

In technological singularity is the hypothesis that the invention of artificial super intelligence will abruptly trigger runaway technological growth, resulting in unfathomable changes to human civilization. A similar concept may apply to financial markets in the realm that is bond yields versus equity prices producing a runaway event in its own right perhaps. Correlation does not imply causation but as you know I’ve been floating my theory of everything a […]

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Check the Rhyme

You might think history teaches; it repeats; page after page, a poem in perfect rhyme tolls echoing bells from both sides of the sheets for births and funerals, tells the time of ageless Alice, Hamlet’s fallacies— the latest light from vanished galaxies – Suite of Mirrors Check the Rhyme: “U.S. consumers borrowed heavily in November, boosting their outstanding credit higher than in any month in four years, the Federal Reserve […]

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