NFP missed this morning and futures initially seemed positive on the news. Why? Because it gives excuses for the Fed to slow down their 2019 rate hike schedule. Still running negative real […]
Change Happens Fast
The Tax Cut Recession
Don’t shoot the messenger: The next recession is unavoidable and is programmed into everything we see right now. In fact, recent tax cuts may end up being the trigger of this next […]
Bull Market Requiem
A bull market requiem: Following the financial crisis the world needed coordinated structural solutions (and those would be hard requiring tough choices). Instead what the world got was coordinated central bank intervention […]
The Writing on the Wall
Many times people’s eyes glaze over when it comes to macro analysis and I get it. Macro analysis is by definition: Macro. It’s like watching a glacier melt and it only becomes […]
The % Puzzle Coming Together
The macro premise remains simple and I’ve written about this a lot: The US is drowning in debt and as long as rates are low it’s all fun and giggles, but there […]
Macro Alert
Watch out, stocks are not the only thing flying. Recently I outlined my concerns about the cost of carry as rates are rising and I’ve outlined my analysis in The Debt Beneath. […]
Quick Takes
In today’s Quick Takes: Tax Bill Update It’s almost as if they didn’t read it before they voted for it. Citigroup came out and warned of a $20B charge as a result of […]
Quick Takes
Today’s Quick Takes: Once-Hot Apartment Construction Cooling as U.S. Housing Engine Artificial intelligence and the stability of markets QT: The long standing trend of computerized program trading may indeed squash volatility forever. AI […]
Quick Takes
Today’s Quick Takes: S&P 500 Breaks Longest Stretch of Calm in Half a Century QT: There’s a subtle change going on with volatility. We’ve had higher lows and and yet again a spike […]
Quick Takes
Today’s Quick Takes: Top Tech Stocks’ $1.7 Trillion Gain Eclipses Canada’s Economy The Gap Between Rich and Poor May Be Reaching Its Peak QT: In the olden days we would have seen pitchforks […]
Quick Takes
I’m streamlining my twitter feed a bit to cut down on noise and to make it easier to keep track of key information links to refer to later. In Quick Takes I […]
Quick Takes
Heavy news filled week this week. It’s month end and a new month beginning, we have a Fed meeting, and plenty ongoing news on tax cuts, but also activity on the political […]
