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NorthmanTrader

Markets-Macro-Charts-Alerts-Technicals

Tag Archive for ‘macro’

The Tax Cut Recession

Don’t shoot the messenger: The next recession is unavoidable and is programmed into everything we see right now. In fact, recent tax cuts may end up being the trigger of this next recession and that reality may slowly be dawning on some market participants. Hence I call it the Tax Cut Recession. Let me walk you through the evidence. Firstly let’s start with a macro chart which I think is […]

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Bull Market Requiem

A bull market requiem: Following the financial crisis the world needed coordinated structural solutions (and those would be hard requiring tough choices). Instead what the world got was coordinated central bank intervention which shrunk the middle class, made the rich richer and provided the rest with the illusion that things were getting better as pro forma unemployment rates shrunk and housing prices rose again and stock markets jumped from record […]

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The Writing on the Wall

Many times people’s eyes glaze over when it comes to macro analysis and I get it. Macro analysis is by definition: Macro. It’s like watching a glacier melt and it only becomes of concern when the glacier structure collapses and you just happen to be in front of it. And then everybody says: Nobody could’ve seen it coming. Yet following the macro pieces is so incredibly important and I continuously […]

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The % Puzzle Coming Together

The macro premise remains simple and I’ve written about this a lot: The US is drowning in debt and as long as rates are low it’s all fun and giggles, but there is a point where it cramps on growth and the simple question is when and where. In recent weeks we have had a nasty correction coinciding with technical overbought readings and both bonds and stocks testing 30 year […]

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Macro Alert

Watch out, stocks are not the only thing flying. Recently I outlined my concerns about the cost of carry as rates are rising and I’ve outlined my analysis in The Debt Beneath. As rates are rising I’m keeping a very close eye on the data points that are coming in and I encourage everyone to do the same. And based on what I’m seeing it’s enough to issue a general […]

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Quick Takes

In today’s Quick Takes: Tax Bill Update It’s almost as if they didn’t read it before they voted for it. Citigroup came out and warned of a $20B charge as a result of the bill, the CEO of one of the largest coal companies came out and said the tax bill would destroy his company and cost thousands of jobs, tax professionals reading the details are basically left to say “holy […]

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Quick Takes

Today’s Quick Takes: Once-Hot Apartment Construction Cooling as U.S. Housing Engine Artificial intelligence and the stability of markets QT: The long standing trend of computerized program trading may indeed squash volatility forever. AI has no fear, neither do algos. The traditional fear bottom may become a thing of the past. As no participants have fear of any negative consequences of a wrong bet. And since nobody cares about profits, who then […]

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Quick Takes

Today’s Quick Takes: S&P 500 Breaks Longest Stretch of Calm in Half a Century QT: There’s a subtle change going on with volatility. We’ve had higher lows and and yet again a spike to the trend line that was rejected. Volatility compression remains, but keeping track of the $VIX is key to inform risk/reward: $VIX: Trend line rejection. Perfection. KILLER chart and has been for 2 years. Long time followers know […]

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Quick Takes

Today’s Quick Takes: Top Tech Stocks’ $1.7 Trillion Gain Eclipses Canada’s Economy The Gap Between Rich and Poor May Be Reaching Its Peak QT: In the olden days we would have seen pitchforks by now. These days everyone is glued to $NFLX, $FB, $GOOGL, or shopping on $AMZN with $AAPL devices. Greece to distribute 1.4 bln euros to citizens hit by austerity Dick’s Sporting Goods shares sink on weak 2018 outlook […]

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Quick Takes

I’m streamlining my twitter feed a bit to cut down on noise and to make it easier to keep track of key information links to refer to later. In Quick Takes I post links I find of interest & relevant on any given day. These links will cover a broad spectrum of items, from the market impacting/relevant to economic & political news, social and the occasional potpourri/humorous and I may […]

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