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NorthmanTrader

Markets-Macro-Charts-Alerts-Technicals

Tag Archive for ‘economy’

Bull Market Requiem

A bull market requiem: Following the financial crisis the world needed coordinated structural solutions (and those would be hard requiring tough choices). Instead what the world got was coordinated central bank intervention which shrunk the middle class, made the rich richer and provided the rest with the illusion that things were getting better as pro forma unemployment rates shrunk and housing prices rose again and stock markets jumped from record […]

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2017 Market Lessons

Before I publish my market outlook for 2018 in the days ahead I thought it might be useful to recap some lessons learned from 2017. While I want to focus on technical considerations some larger market context first is equally important. The biggest mistake bears always make, myself included, is underestimate the sheer recklessness of bulls. They keep raising the bar higher and higher, get everyone positioned long and when the […]

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As Good As it Gets

So they got their tax cut done. In the middle of the night again no less, despite the vast majority of the American people not wanting it. The reason may simply be that the American public is not believing the false narratives that are being sold to them. And who can blame them? It starts at the top after all. When Donald Trump claims the tax plan would personally hurt […]

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The Silence of the Bears

The silence of the bears is deafening. And who can blame them? The last 2 years have been absolutely brutal for any fans of price discovery, volatility and anything analytical mattering. Nothing matters. Be it divergences, valuations, earnings misses, slowing data, yield curve, equal weight, internals, catastrophes in nature, slowing loan growth, slowing auto sales, slowing real estate, retail apocalypse, debt levels, etc…I can drone on. Nothing matters. Markets keep […]

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Quick Takes

Today’s Quick Takes: Once-Hot Apartment Construction Cooling as U.S. Housing Engine Artificial intelligence and the stability of markets QT: The long standing trend of computerized program trading may indeed squash volatility forever. AI has no fear, neither do algos. The traditional fear bottom may become a thing of the past. As no participants have fear of any negative consequences of a wrong bet. And since nobody cares about profits, who then […]

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Quick Takes

Today’s Quick Takes: S&P 500 Breaks Longest Stretch of Calm in Half a Century QT: There’s a subtle change going on with volatility. We’ve had higher lows and and yet again a spike to the trend line that was rejected. Volatility compression remains, but keeping track of the $VIX is key to inform risk/reward: $VIX: Trend line rejection. Perfection. KILLER chart and has been for 2 years. Long time followers know […]

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Quick Takes

Today’s Quick Takes: Top Tech Stocks’ $1.7 Trillion Gain Eclipses Canada’s Economy The Gap Between Rich and Poor May Be Reaching Its Peak QT: In the olden days we would have seen pitchforks by now. These days everyone is glued to $NFLX, $FB, $GOOGL, or shopping on $AMZN with $AAPL devices. Greece to distribute 1.4 bln euros to citizens hit by austerity Dick’s Sporting Goods shares sink on weak 2018 outlook […]

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Quick Takes

I’m streamlining my twitter feed a bit to cut down on noise and to make it easier to keep track of key information links to refer to later. In Quick Takes I post links I find of interest & relevant on any given day. These links will cover a broad spectrum of items, from the market impacting/relevant to economic & political news, social and the occasional potpourri/humorous and I may […]

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Tax Cut Scam

I can’t help shake this sinking feeling: This tax cut package that is being peddled by the current administration is a scam. Why? Because the entire narrative is dishonest and predicated on false, make belief premises. Rich guys giving themselves tax cuts telling you it'll trickle down & economic growth will be nothing but milk and honey & it will all pay for itself Surely people are not falling for […]

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Quick Takes

Heavy news filled week this week. It’s month end and a new month beginning, we have a Fed meeting,  and plenty ongoing news on tax cuts, but also activity on the political front. As Credit Booms, Citi Says Synthetic CDOs May Reach $100 Billion Banks are staying away from bitcoin ‘bubble’ due to money laundering, Credit Suisse CEO says On the eve of the tax cut bill, few Americans actually […]

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