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NorthmanTrader

Markets – Macro – Stocks – Charts – Alerts – SetUps

Tag Archive for ‘debt’

The Writing on the Wall

Many times people’s eyes glaze over when it comes to macro analysis and I get it. Macro analysis is by definition: Macro. It’s like watching a glacier melt and it only becomes of concern when the glacier structure collapses and you just happen to be in front of it. And then everybody says: Nobody could’ve seen it coming. Yet following the macro pieces is so incredibly important and I continuously […]

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The % Puzzle Coming Together

The macro premise remains simple and I’ve written about this a lot: The US is drowning in debt and as long as rates are low it’s all fun and giggles, but there is a point where it cramps on growth and the simple question is when and where. In recent weeks we have had a nasty correction coinciding with technical overbought readings and both bonds and stocks testing 30 year […]

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Rising Debt + Rising Rates

Have they all lost their collective minds? Look I get that some people are leaning Democrat versus Republican and vice versa and that’s fine, but what exactly are voters getting? If, on the one hand, you think Democrats tax and spend too much you get Republicans on the other hand who cut taxes with disproportional benefit to the top 1% and then spend even more. Fiscal conservatives? Please. In early […]

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Macro Alert

Watch out, stocks are not the only thing flying. Recently I outlined my concerns about the cost of carry as rates are rising and I’ve outlined my analysis in The Debt Beneath. As rates are rising I’m keeping a very close eye on the data points that are coming in and I encourage everyone to do the same. And based on what I’m seeing it’s enough to issue a general […]

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Rising Interest Payments

Is anyone paying attention? I don’t know, but the cost of carrying debt has been rising and it’s already showing measurable impacts despite the Fed Funds rate still being very low. My concern of course is that the global debt construct will bring global growth to a screeching halt (see also The Debt Beneath). As the 10 year is already piercing above the 2.6% area now I want to pay attention […]

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The Debt Beneath

Debt is irrelevant and matters not. It’s different this time. That’s the message from politicians, markets and participants. Tax cuts pay for themselves (they do not), leverage doesn’t matter (it does) and the increased costs of servicing the debt as a result of rising rates will be offset by imaginary real wage growth to come (they won’t). But the calmest market waters in history continue to keep these illusions alive […]

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Riddle me this

Who doesn’t love a good riddle? Riddles can be fun and a good brain exercise for the entire family. How about a riddle for the global village we’re in? I have a riddle and I am certainly curious as to what the answer is. So riddle me this: When real wage growth & real disposable income growth is languishing: While consumers have loaded up on debt: All enabled by loose […]

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Caution: Slowdown

Many of you know I keep posting charts keeping taps on the macro picture in the Macro Corner. It’s actually an interesting exercise watching what they do versus what they say. Public narratives versus reality on the ground. I know there’s a lot of talk of global synchronized expansion. I call synchronized bullshit. Institutions will not warn investors or consumers. They never do. Banks won’t warn consumers because they need […]

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Quick Takes

I’m streamlining my twitter feed a bit to cut down on noise and to make it easier to keep track of key information links to refer to later. In Quick Takes I post links I find of interest & relevant on any given day. These links will cover a broad spectrum of items, from the market impacting/relevant to economic & political news, social and the occasional potpourri/humorous and I may […]

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Tax Cuts Now, Consequences Later

Look, who doesn’t like tax cuts? You get more money in your pocket and you spend more, that’s the premise after all. So it all sounds good on paper, especially when there’s not a detailed discussion of any downsides or risk, or consequences. And that fact in itself has me suspicious and should make you too. Have you ever tried buying a car and you got the distinct sense the […]

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