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NorthmanTrader

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Tag Archive for ‘10 year’

Retiring the Bear

You’d think a guy like me who’s been outlining danger signs in these markets would take pleasure in seeing the market carnage yesterday. But I’m not. Far from it. I hate crashes. Corrections I’m fine with, but crashes are dangerous for everybody, bulls and bears alike. Often bears get blamed for crashes, but there haven’t been any bears as of late. Crashes happen every time when folks get too exuberant¬†and […]

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Macro Alert

Watch out, stocks are not the only thing flying. Recently I outlined my concerns about the cost of carry as rates are rising and I’ve outlined my analysis in The Debt Beneath. As rates are rising I’m keeping a very close eye on the data points that are coming in and I encourage everyone to do the same. And based on what I’m seeing it’s enough to issue a general […]

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The Debt Beneath

Debt is irrelevant and matters not. It’s different this time. That’s the message from politicians, markets and participants. Tax cuts pay for themselves (they do not), leverage doesn’t matter (it does) and the increased costs of servicing the debt as a result of rising rates will be offset by imaginary real wage growth to come (they won’t). But the calmest market waters in history continue to keep these illusions alive […]

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