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This 2018 market outlook is building on recent articles I’ve published as they lay the foundation to the technical discussion I’ll be outlining below. Hence I won’t be repeating them here, but I may make occasional reference to them. If you haven’t read them I highly encourage you to have a read for the additional context & background. Specifically: 2017 Market Lessons, Yearly Charts, The Debt Beneath, and Welcome to […]
2018 has come and gapped and gapped and then gapped some more. It’s been said that all gaps fill, if ever. I think it might have been Art Chasin who said it. It’s true in a way as most gaps historically fill, but some never do or stay open for many years. Things become a bit unusual when much of price “discovery” is driven by overnight gap action. Case in […]
Debt is irrelevant and matters not. It’s different this time. That’s the message from politicians, markets and participants. Tax cuts pay for themselves (they do not), leverage doesn’t matter (it does) and the increased costs of servicing the debt as a result of rising rates will be offset by imaginary real wage growth to come (they won’t). But the calmest market waters in history continue to keep these illusions alive […]
I’m going to show you some yearly charts that I think everyone should see. You won’t see these charts anywhere else and most likely I’ll get accused of scare mongering for even showing these charts, but I’m showing them to raise awareness and to educate. People can make up their own minds about them, but rest assured all these charts are data driven and they highlight a key concern of […]