Markets – Macro – Technicals

SPX

This page tracks SPX (S&P 500) over time and different time frames. Updates, including different time frames and additional technical subsets will be notified via Twitter and Facebook.

For access to other charts please visit Charts. For latest public market views please visit Market Analysis.

For access to the detailed analysis of The Daily Brief and Kiss Trades please check with Services.
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All content is provided as information only and should not be taken as investment or trading advice. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. For further details please refer to the disclaimer.


August 26, 2017

Last week’s bounce was not a surprise if you paid attention to the oversold signals and trend line supports. This week $SPX has tried several times to recapture its daily 50MA during trading hours and was rejected each time. Indeed it closed the week below the weekly 5EMA as well. It as held support at the daily 100MA, the weekly 21MA and the February 2016 trend line.

Bottom line: $SPX is at knives edge here and needs a rally fast or risk breaking support which could invite a move toward toward the weekly 50MA and the lower weekly Bollinger band:

August 21, 2017

Keep it simple stupid (KISS). The 100MA was a target discussed in the Danger Zone, especially in context of the 2000 and 2007 tops. Reversal off rejection candle, tag of the 100MA, bounce to lower high and then down. We shall see if it will evolve similarly here, but, for now, this market is following this historically familiar script as we witnessed a perfect tag and bounce off of the 100 MA:

August 11, 2017

Whether you are long term bullish or bearish the charts “bear” the same message: All recent highs have come on very pronounced negative divergences. Negative divergences at tops and positive divergences at bottoms can mark profound market turns:

August 1, 2017

For July month end I posted some monthly charts for $SPX, $DJIA, $RUT, $FAW, $XLF & $DAX. I can’t discuss them in detail here in the public chart section, but the charts actually send an aggregate message and you can find them linked in the Charts section. My latest public analysis can be found here: Welcome to the Danger Zone.

Actually a quarterly chart for $SPX:

July 14, 2017

$SPX tagged its upper trend line and rejected while making new highs on a negative divergence. Price has now moved into the upper risk zone I’ve been outlining in detail in The Final Wave and Bulls are playing with Fire.

July 9, 2017

$SPX has spent 6 1/2 weeks in a tight price consolidation pattern. The past 3 weeks have produced consecutive red candles however the price range has held above the weekly 13 EMA. 3 consecutive weekly candles have been rare in the recent years, but when they occurred they produced more downside than this latest occurrence. Also when they occurred they have resulted in a sizable bounce. In 3 of the past 4 occurrences these bounces were followed by further downside.

For now any serious corrective activity remains missing amidst current record volatility compression.

As support has held the uptrend remains in effect.  A break of support risks a visit to the lower trend line, the current .382 fib (November lows were lower than the cash chart indicates) and/or the weekly 50MA. Without a break of support upside risk remains per the larger risk analysis.

For further charts please click the image below:

July 2, 2017

The last true corrective move for $SPX occurred outside of market hours during the November 2016 election when $SPX fell below the November 2014 highs. Since then $SPX has been in a steady uptrend. Pullbacks have found support at the daily 5 EMA, the 21MA and the 50MA and all are continuing to rise at the moment. Points of resistance/support have revealed new trend lines dating back to the May 2015 highs and the February 2016 lows.

These trend lines have relevance unless decisively broken in either direction. Recent highs in May and June have come on a very pronounced negative divergence making any price advances technically suspect.

Currently the RSI is in mid range and has not seen a full oversold signal since the November election. Oversold signals usually occur at least 2-3 times a year. We have yet to see one in 2017.

For further charts please click the image below:

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