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August 11, 2017
$NDX has been playing out a bear flag following the recent failed new highs. These new highs came on a positive divergence on its underlying volatility index. Since then price has broken down. Without a sustained a bounce above the broken bear flag $NDX is at high risk of a larger corrective moved toward the lower trend line:
July 19, 2017
Last week $NDX has jumped above the 50MA via gap up courtesy Janet Yellen and hasn’t looked back since. The Nasdaq already printed new highs yesterday albeit on negative advance/decliners. Any new highs would come on a negative RSI divergence amidst a positive divergence in its underlying volatility index.
Our view: Bulls are playing with Fire.
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July 11, 2017
“You got to know when to hold’em, know when to fold’em, know when to walk away, know when to run” Kenny Rogers used to sing in The Gambler.
The oversold readings outlined on July 7 were good signal for sellers to pack their bags and for buyers to step in, the fact the $NDX didn’t print new lows on a new $SPX low were a further signal that the selling may be done for now.
Indeed we have now seen a bounce back toward the 50MA which now serves as resistance. Above there would be an open gap. Filling this gap would still constitute a lower high, hence buyers are under pressure to move above recent highs or risk a larger top being formed. Renewed selling breaking May & July lows opens a visit to gap fill and the .382 fib.
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