Markets – Macro – Technicals


This page tracks FAW (the global FTSE index) over time and different time frames. Updates, including different time frames and additional technical subsets will be notified via Twitter and Facebook.

For access to other charts please visit Charts. For latest public market views please visit Market Analysis.

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All content is provided as information only and should not be taken as investment or trading advice. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. For further details please refer to the disclaimer.

August 24, 2017

Markets have recovered last week’s weakness and are rallying into the annual central bank cabal meetings at Jackson Hole. Imagine that 🙂 The meetings are commencing today culminating with speeches by Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi tomorrow. Kind of a key moment for markets although US taxes will be front and center in September as the success of tax cuts is expected to serve as further stimulus to world that just can’t do without. The $FAW chart shows that global markets have moved from one bull flag to another and whether this one here will play as one will remain to be seen. My view is that if they can’t make new highs here, this bull is done for now and we will see a larger correction into the target zone outlined.

August 11, 2017

This is an interesting long term chart of the global index as long term trend lines continue to show relevance, even at recent highs. A break below the trend line just underneath could cause larger corrective action, but as long as it holds $FAW may be fine. For now. Note it’s on 10 months of straight up and hasn’t had a correction since the US election in November. Its slope and unidirectional move in recent months make is a dangerous chart on a break of support.

August 1, 2017

For July month end I posted some monthly charts for $SPX, $DJIA, $RUT, $FAW, $XLF & $DAX. I can’t discuss them in detail here in the public chart section, but the charts actually send an aggregate message and you can find them linked in the Charts section. My latest public analysis can be found here: Welcome to the Danger Zone.

July 17, 2017

$FAW made a new high yet again, still hugging its long time trend line. The monthly RSI is overbought to the same level as the 2007 time frame. Recent highs have come on a negative RISI divergence. The support channel off of the 2016 lows shows a narrowing channel. The index remains in its 9th up month in a row.

July 6, 2017

$FAW has started the month with weakness. The index is now on its 6th consecutive disconnect from the monthly 5 EMA, really unprecedented in modern times, but not surprising given record central bank intervention (see ECB balance sheet below). As it stands a reconnect with either the 5EMA and/or 8MA is highly likely in the weeks to come.

For further charts please click the image below:

July 2, 2017

The $FAW is in essence everything of importance on a global basis. This chart is fascinating as it opens up the possibility that the entire global rally seen since the February 2016 lows was a potential blow-off topping move that in essence technically reconnected with a broken trend line.

This trend line was broken in 2015 and has never recovered. Indeed the latter part of 2015 produced a tag that failed producing the February 2016 correction which resulted in the most unprecedented central bank intervention ever seen culminating in over $1.5 trillion in intervention in just the first 6 months of 2017.

Hence, on might argue, it is no wonder that global stock markets have risen every single month of 2017 so far.

The end result: The trend line was tagged and it has been rejected so far. So purely technical speaking: The trend line remains broken which could highlight that this move to new highs was perhaps a giant fake out.

However only a move below the 2015 highs would invalidate this advance. So the next few months of price development will critical in either validating or invalidating this move.

However, this trend line has been, and continues to be, valid. And it is steep and the reactions this month is very notable.

Bulls need continued, uninterrupted up months to stay close to it.

For further charts please click the image below:

The material on this website is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof, and is subject to change without notice and does not constitute investment advice.
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