This page tracks previous versions of $ES (SPX futures). For the most up to date chart please see: $ES
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July 6, 2017
The bear flag indicated on Monday has played out. $ES has also broken its November 2016 trend line. This trend line is now resistance on any bounces. Were June lows to break lower fib levels may come into play on further corrective activity.
July 3, 2017
July tends to be bullish generally speaking, but we can observe affinity with .786 fib rejections as of late. I’ve pointed them out on twitter for the $NDX in recent weeks, but now we have seen one on the $ES within context of a potential bear flag pattern. Today was textbook.
July 2, 2017
As discussed previously (see Market Analysis) $SPX has upside resistance into 2450-2500. The futures contract chart below shows a wedge pattern dating back to the 2007 highs that actually shows a potential apex into 2564. As long as this pattern remains unbroken $ES can be considered in an uptrend. However this pattern remains extremely steep. I’ve mentioned this pattern on CNBC back in the fall of 2016.
For 2017 we have seen an uninterrupted move which opens markets to an increased risk of a sudden reversion.
Note the recent highs on $ES have now created almost perfect fib level confluence with previous support zones including the November 2016 lows. A perhaps historical coincidence, nevertheless any corrective move would now find the November lows to also be major fib support.
The broader issue for the market is that it hasn’t seen a proper technical correction since 2011. Given extreme volatility compression a break of the support trend line would open $ES up to a technical correction into the .382 fib at least.
This fib currently resides at 1767 and given the size of the advance this would imply a bear market move with a 28% correction.
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