Markets – Macro – Technicals

$DAX

This page tracks previous versions of $DAX (Germany). For the most up to date chart please see: $DAX

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July 17, 2017

As suggested last week $DAX would struggle with resistance at the 50MA and the .50% fib. It has since rejected this price zone after repeated attempts and has now fallen below its 100MA. A break of recent lows would target the gap fill below. Yet price discovery remains driven by central bankers as we saw again last week with Janet Yellen. The week Mario Draghi will be on tap on Thursday. His words may again influence the next big price move. We shall see.

July 10, 2017

$DAX continues to struggle with its recent confined price range as we saw another rejection above the .236 fib in overnight action. A break of recent lows would continue to target the open gap below and potentially the 200MA. The 50MA continues to decline and is currently coinciding with the .50% fib presenting a confluence of resistance on any rally attempts.

July 3, 2017

DAX has broken its 50MA which is now turned south. In conjunction with the quarterly chart posted below this is a major warning sign for this index. Fib levels and the 50MA serve as resistance on bounces. The open gap below, in confluence with the 200MA serve as major support on a break lower.

 

July 2, 2017

Dax has been in major rally mode since the ECB expanded its QE program following the early 2016 correction. Also supported by relatively decent growth figures in the German economy the index made new all time highs in the first quarter of 2017.

However, like most index highs across the globe, these highs have come on very pronounced negative divergences. As we like to say negative divergences don’t matter until they do and now we are finding ourselves with a red quarterly candle off of those new highs. In combination with reduced QE and the negative divergences this could spell major trouble for the DAX without new highs.

The last time we have seen a similar set-up was during the 2000 highs. I called it “the best of times, the worst of times” on twitter. The reason being, optimism is high, prices are high and yet it was the worse time to be staying long stocks back then.

In this case we shall see, but a drop below the 2014/2015 highs could spell major trouble for the DAX.

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