Unemployment at 50 year lows, S&P 500 near all time human history highs and rate cuts are all the rage. Markets were screaming rate cuts and the Fed dutifully complied, first Bullard, […]
Rescued
Collapse
Let’s call a spade a spade: The month of May was a month of collapse. Collapse in bullish narratives, collapse in trade talks, collapse in yields, collapse in technical structures, collapse in […]
Intervention
Sorry no weekend video this weekend, instead I just wanted to offer some commentary on some of the macro charts I recently posted on twitter. The larger message of all of these […]
Toxic Mess
Market price discovery has become a toxic mess and traders have to adapt to changing conditions. Fast. Blending an understanding of technicals with a keen awareness of the outside influencing factors on […]
Reality Check
And then The Never Ending Market Rally ended. With a tweet no less and $VIX exploded 82% higher just days after $VIX futures net short positioning reached an all time high. Knuckleheads. […]
The Never Ending Rally
Is the never ending rally ready to blast off or is it running out of steam setting up to finally correct? Let’s first separate facts from fiction. Forget data and earnings, only […]
Get Real
The final phase of a bull cycle is the most deceiving. It is the time when things are at their best, optimism runs wild, equities can do no wrong and any warning […]
Mismatch
Oh dear. People are embracing the bubble and, as it happens in every bubble, fantastical narratives are emerging to justify the valuations and the price momentum as folks cannot square reality with […]
Mind The Gaps
Bears are rapidly losing the will to live, underinvested bulls are desperately waiting for a dip, any dip, to emerge to buy and the most complacent are rewarded with handsome gains. Welcome […]
Theater of the Absurd
The lowest job claims in 49 years coupled with the loosest financial conditions in 25 years, yet the Fed panic stopped all rate hikes following a 20% market drop and for all […]
Decision Time
The first quarter of 2019 was a smash hit for bulls. Capitulating central banks, record buybacks flushing the system with artificial liquidity, constant jawboning by dovish central bankers and permanent promises of […]
The Reckoning
The big macro wheels are turning and everybody better pay very close attention. The Reckoning is coming. Best hope for a substantive China trade deal and a last minute save on Brexit […]
