The final phase of a bull cycle is the most deceiving. It is the time when things are at their best, optimism runs wild, equities can do no wrong and any warning […]
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Get Real
Mismatch
Oh dear. People are embracing the bubble and, as it happens in every bubble, fantastical narratives are emerging to justify the valuations and the price momentum as folks cannot square reality with […]
Mind The Gaps
Bears are rapidly losing the will to live, underinvested bulls are desperately waiting for a dip, any dip, to emerge to buy and the most complacent are rewarded with handsome gains. Welcome […]
Theater of the Absurd
The lowest job claims in 49 years coupled with the loosest financial conditions in 25 years, yet the Fed panic stopped all rate hikes following a 20% market drop and for all […]
Decision Time
The first quarter of 2019 was a smash hit for bulls. Capitulating central banks, record buybacks flushing the system with artificial liquidity, constant jawboning by dovish central bankers and permanent promises of […]
The Reckoning
The big macro wheels are turning and everybody better pay very close attention. The Reckoning is coming. Best hope for a substantive China trade deal and a last minute save on Brexit […]
Deception
We’re back in the phase of markets where bears look like idiots and bulls look like geniuses. In 2018, following the US tax cuts, a growing economy and expanding earnings had bears […]
The Danger of New Lows
In last week’s Weekly Market Brief I made the case for a coming $VIX spike: “With a $VIX now at 13.5 and a big open gap at 24+ the $VIX is setting […]
$VIX Crush
Every week the village gathers and watches the regularly scheduled public crushing of Mr. $VIX. It doesn’t matter what happens in the world during the week, it doesn’t matter what economic reports […]
Caution
Magic indeed. From last week’s brief: “For next week bulls have the opportunity to ramp markets anew for OPEX week as these weeks tend to be more favorable than not. The goal […]
Magic
This week markets reached the key resistance confluence zone I’ve been outlining and rejected from there. Still $SPX managed to close the week positively by 1 handle making it the 7th consecutive […]
All Hail Chairman POW
Before I go into charts some things just have to be said: All pretense has been laid to rest. Bears have been proven right. Markets are managed by a central planning committee. […]
