Market price discovery has become a toxic mess and traders have to adapt to changing conditions. Fast. Blending an understanding of technicals with a keen awareness of the outside influencing factors on […]
And then The Never Ending Market Rally ended. With a tweet no less and $VIX exploded 82% higher just days after $VIX futures net short positioning reached an all time high. Knuckleheads. […]
Is the never ending rally ready to blast off or is it running out of steam setting up to finally correct? Let’s first separate facts from fiction. Forget data and earnings, only […]
The final phase of a bull cycle is the most deceiving. It is the time when things are at their best, optimism runs wild, equities can do no wrong and any warning […]
Oh dear. People are embracing the bubble and, as it happens in every bubble, fantastical narratives are emerging to justify the valuations and the price momentum as folks cannot square reality with […]
Bears are rapidly losing the will to live, underinvested bulls are desperately waiting for a dip, any dip, to emerge to buy and the most complacent are rewarded with handsome gains. Welcome […]
The lowest job claims in 49 years coupled with the loosest financial conditions in 25 years, yet the Fed panic stopped all rate hikes following a 20% market drop and for all […]
The first quarter of 2019 was a smash hit for bulls. Capitulating central banks, record buybacks flushing the system with artificial liquidity, constant jawboning by dovish central bankers and permanent promises of […]
The big macro wheels are turning and everybody better pay very close attention. The Reckoning is coming. Best hope for a substantive China trade deal and a last minute save on Brexit […]
We’re back in the phase of markets where bears look like idiots and bulls look like geniuses. In 2018, following the US tax cuts, a growing economy and expanding earnings had bears […]
In last week’s Weekly Market Brief I made the case for a coming $VIX spike: “With a $VIX now at 13.5 and a big open gap at 24+ the $VIX is setting […]
Every week the village gathers and watches the regularly scheduled public crushing of Mr. $VIX. It doesn’t matter what happens in the world during the week, it doesn’t matter what economic reports […]
