The macro premise remains simple and I’ve written about this a lot: The US is drowning in debt and as long as rates are low it’s all fun and giggles, but there […]
Have they all lost their collective minds? Look I get that some people are leaning Democrat versus Republican and vice versa and that’s fine, but what exactly are voters getting? If, on […]
When police try to solve a crime one of the key tasks is to determine who benefits from the crime. The beneficiary of a crime is not necessarily the perpetrator, but motive […]
The post below is an excerpt of notes Mella sent to clients this week. I think it’s too good not to share: Some observations on the recent market action. What defines a […]
You’d think a guy like me who’s been outlining danger signs in these markets would take pleasure in seeing the market carnage yesterday. But I’m not. Far from it. I hate crashes. […]
As Janet Yellen is passing the bubble, excuse me, the buck, wrong again, the baton to Jerome Powell this week there is some chatter as to whether Jerome Powell will use the […]
In the fullness of time the recent US tax cuts will prove to have been a major policy mistake and I’ll give you several reasons why. Oh I know, amidst the stock […]
Watch out, stocks are not the only thing flying. Recently I outlined my concerns about the cost of carry as rates are rising and I’ve outlined my analysis in The Debt Beneath. […]
How stupid do central bankers think we are? By account of their communications and actions the answer is: Very. Just in the past 24 hours we got a heap of communications that […]
Is anyone paying attention? I don’t know, but the cost of carrying debt has been rising and it’s already showing measurable impacts despite the Fed Funds rate still being very low. My […]
Government shutdowns make for stirring headlines, but usually only for a few days. The history is pretty clear: The government doesn’t remain shut for long and usually one side or both sides […]
Once upon a time, a long long time ago in markets far away, stocks actually went down on occasion. Soon, next week actually, we’ll see headlines that we’ve entered the longest period […]
