Ask yourself seriously: Is it reasonable for your kid or anyone’s kid to be shot and killed? Is it reasonable for innocent people go to concerts, movies, their workplace or anywhere and […]
Is It Reasonable?
The % Puzzle Coming Together
The macro premise remains simple and I’ve written about this a lot: The US is drowning in debt and as long as rates are low it’s all fun and giggles, but there […]
Rising Debt + Rising Rates
Have they all lost their collective minds? Look I get that some people are leaning Democrat versus Republican and vice versa and that’s fine, but what exactly are voters getting? If, on […]
Powell ain’t Yellen
When police try to solve a crime one of the key tasks is to determine who benefits from the crime. The beneficiary of a crime is not necessarily the perpetrator, but motive […]
Seas of Change?
The post below is an excerpt of notes Mella sent to clients this week. I think it’s too good not to share: Some observations on the recent market action. What defines a […]
Retiring the Bear
You’d think a guy like me who’s been outlining danger signs in these markets would take pleasure in seeing the market carnage yesterday. But I’m not. Far from it. I hate crashes. […]
Fed Shock & Awe?
As Janet Yellen is passing the bubble, excuse me, the buck, wrong again, the baton to Jerome Powell this week there is some chatter as to whether Jerome Powell will use the […]
Tax Cut Hangover
In the fullness of time the recent US tax cuts will prove to have been a major policy mistake and I’ll give you several reasons why. Oh I know, amidst the stock […]
Macro Alert
Watch out, stocks are not the only thing flying. Recently I outlined my concerns about the cost of carry as rates are rising and I’ve outlined my analysis in The Debt Beneath. […]
Big Little Lies by Central Bankers
How stupid do central bankers think we are? By account of their communications and actions the answer is: Very. Just in the past 24 hours we got a heap of communications that […]
Rising Interest Payments
Is anyone paying attention? I don’t know, but the cost of carrying debt has been rising and it’s already showing measurable impacts despite the Fed Funds rate still being very low. My […]
Shutdown Nonsense
Government shutdowns make for stirring headlines, but usually only for a few days. The history is pretty clear: The government doesn’t remain shut for long and usually one side or both sides […]
