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NorthmanTrader

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NT Blog

Check the Rhyme

You might think history teaches; it repeats; page after page, a poem in perfect rhyme tolls echoing bells from both sides of the sheets for births and funerals, tells the time of ageless Alice, Hamlet’s fallacies— the latest light from vanished galaxies – Suite of Mirrors Check the Rhyme: “U.S. consumers borrowed heavily in November, boosting their outstanding credit higher than in any month in four years, the Federal Reserve […]

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As Good As it Gets

So they got their tax cut done. In the middle of the night again no less, despite the vast majority of the American people not wanting it. The reason may simply be that the American public is not believing the false narratives that are being sold to them. And who can blame them? It starts at the top after all. When Donald Trump claims the tax plan would personally hurt […]

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Pushing People

Every once in a while you get a nugget of truth in our noise filled world. And when you do you have to cherish it. Like a prized possession. In the real world it is considered impolite to push someone. People can get startled and stumble, or they can fall and hurt themselves or worse, depending on what they get pushed into or over. But in the monetary world if […]

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Riddle me this

Who doesn’t love a good riddle? Riddles can be fun and a good brain exercise for the entire family. How about a riddle for the global village we’re in? I have a riddle and I am certainly curious as to what the answer is. So riddle me this: When real wage growth & real disposable income growth is languishing: While consumers have loaded up on debt: All enabled by loose […]

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Quick Takes

In today’s Quick Takes: Tax Bill Update It’s almost as if they didn’t read it before they voted for it. Citigroup came out and warned of a $20B charge as a result of the bill, the CEO of one of the largest coal companies came out and said the tax bill would destroy his company and cost thousands of jobs, tax professionals reading the details are basically left to say “holy […]

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Calorie Panic

Well it’s too late now. Thanksgiving is over and hopefully it was a splendid time well spent with family. And, if you’re like most Americans: Time spent eating. Lots of time eating. Myself I could never say no to the sweet potatoes. Some more gravy? Pass on the rolls. Hey don’t keep them all to yourself. LOVE the cranberry sauce. Oh the stuffing is just so good..ok I’m stuffed. Now […]

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Quick Takes

Today’s Quick Takes: Once-Hot Apartment Construction Cooling as U.S. Housing Engine Artificial intelligence and the stability of markets QT: The long standing trend of computerized program trading may indeed squash volatility forever. AI has no fear, neither do algos. The traditional fear bottom may become a thing of the past. As no participants have fear of any negative consequences of a wrong bet. And since nobody cares about profits, who then […]

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Quick Takes

Today’s Quick Takes: S&P 500 Breaks Longest Stretch of Calm in Half a Century QT: There’s a subtle change going on with volatility. We’ve had higher lows and and yet again a spike to the trend line that was rejected. Volatility compression remains, but keeping track of the $VIX is key to inform risk/reward: $VIX: Trend line rejection. Perfection. KILLER chart and has been for 2 years. Long time followers know […]

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