Markets down two weeks in a row right before another Fed meeting and quad witch options expiration next week.
In this week’s episode of Straight Talk I’m discussing the prospect of more volatility to come into October and November, but also the potential for another rally. The dollar, $VIX, the Nasdaq, along with Gold and the US dollar are all key moving parts as we approach what may be a pivotal week in the short term.
You can access the podcast by following the link below:
The main message of the last two weeks: Technicals matter and this week I highlighted some critical charts to watch in Key Charts. If you haven’t seen the charts I encourage you to check them out as they matter in the macro picture and so you know where I’m coming from.
For additional context I’m also including some charts below that I’m referencing in the podcast above. Namely:
$VIX futures, the regular program of $VIX crush into OPEX:
The apparently regularly scheduled Friday $VIX crush program, along with the potential bull flag building:
Also: The potential bullish falling wedge pattern in $NDX that currently remains unconfirmed.
First when we identified it on our private feed on Friday:
And the subsequent bounce off of the trend line:
Yet with full cognition that $NDX has broken its trend and is therefore at risk of further downside:
And finally not only the dollar breakout, but how metals and Gold specifically are under pressure when the dollar rises:
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Categories: Straight Talk
Too long, make it shorter please
It’s perfect you can fast forward it if you think it’s too long.
Sven what’s your target for #NDX falling wedge?
Thanks great work again.fg
Love the podcast Sven, but the Fed is not printing money. In a fractional reserve banking system money is only created by bank lending. QE does not add liquidity to the financial system unless banks lend against the increase in reserves they receive from selling treasuries to the Fed. This is not occurring. The run up in the markets is purely driven by psychology, which means when it falls, it will fall fast.
Treasuries cannot buy stocks, but dollar bills can. Although you are correct that money is not being “printed”, the Fed IS effectively exchanging the savings acct of a bank to a checking acct. That checking acct can add liquidity to the market. So, altho’ the FED may not be adding actual money to the system (which is done by fiscal gov’t transfer payments or by bank lending creating money), they are changing the composition of money to a more liquid form.
“We need a calamity to get back together.” There’s one on the West Coast now, with the Governor of Oregon saying there is a mass casualty event unfolding in her state, half a million people evacuated from their homes, air quality the worst in the world all along the coast, with temperatures reaching 112 degrees in LA County a few days ago and fire season now lasting for nearly half of every year. But the President has hardly acknowledged it as he denies global warming and does what he can to remove barriers to industrial pollution. I guess what I’m saying is that even a calamity isn’t enough to bring our country together. I don’t know what is….
I like the idea Sven. Election without a result will cause major volatility, from the 6th onward. It should get well under way the following week, and by the end of the week, records set. Biggest crash in history. Makes the most sense and most convenient get out of jail free card for all politicians and FED. Not our fault, election fault.
The top is in and the crash has already started. We will have another leg downward starting Monday.
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Thank you. What is the target for falling edge stop on NDX?
My target on S&P is 500ish.
https://share.icloud.com/photos/0HcsGW2BFVXohJ7OQcqVd3z_w#Loyola_University_New_Orleans merci Monsieur
Great podcast! So glad it’s on Apple Podcasts now. Miss the trio with Dan and Guy, but really appreciate your market insights. Many thanks.
Yeah, I think TOP is likley in….now we crash into early November. Maybe S&P below 2000 by then….
Sven, Been a subscriber for a while. I absolutely love your insights!
As a digital marketer who makes a living on keeping people’s attention through websites and other digital assets, I got to tell you that the podcast + charts on a web page experience just doesn’t work. It creates a highly disconnected experience.
Perhaps you are doing this to capture new subscribers through Apple and other podcast destinations, but can I convince you to create videos and then convert the same video to a podcast? It will be a win-win. Existing subscribers will continue to get great insights, and you will reach new subscribers too.
Interesting comments on the us dollar. I hedged my bonds with some commodities and European stocks. Will need to keep eye on those.
Tomorrow Powell will appear as a paper tiger and the markets will start it’s next leg down and will break the March lows.