Market Analysis

Trend Breaks

Pay attention here, we just witnessed trend breaks on some index charts and these breaks are coming at a key time and could spell more trouble to come.

Speaking of key time, who says twitter trolls are good for nothing. If anything, they sometime can serve as contrarian sentiment checks. I sensed markets were reaching a potential turning point over the last few days as I got my usual “perma bear” hate trolling on twitter. I tend to get this a lot near key market pivot points.

I got the obsessive permabear hate labels last year in the run-up to Lying Highs. Oddly enough I didn’t get any of the permabear hate in December when markets were plunging 20%. And ironically I didn’t get perma bear hate when I was bullish in December. But once $SPX reached 2940 and they came back.

Yes trolls on twitter are rather selective and like to distort for their own reasons. It’s silly of course as objective readers actually know me not to be a perma bear. I can’t speak to the psychology and motivation of trolls on the internet. Perhaps they secretly love me lol, after all some have been dedicating years of their lives to trolling me. Look, I don’t have time for nonsense and hate by people who don’t know me and have never even met me.

Yes, I’m posting analyses that are critical of market structures, central banks, and macro structural issues. And I stand by my criticisms. I outline my rationale with facts and figures.

But if that makes me a permabear I must be a terrible permabear. I mean what kind of permabear has any sort of bullish technical outlooks? (For examples see here, here, here, here, and here).

I put out some of my analytical work publicly. When I favor the short side I outline the rationale for that. When I favor the long side I outline my rationale for that. I outline risk levels, I share some of what I see in charts. Don’t like my rationale? Don’t read it. Don’t like me? Don’t follow me. Simple.

And yes there will be times when I’m wrong or I’m early. And there are lessons on being wrong and I’ve outlined them.

Indeed my philosophy on my work:

Take April. April has not been a great month for me. Had a great January, an ok February and March, but April has been a paint drying watching exercise. So what? Nobody ever experienced a drawdown?

Let the traders who’ve never had a challenging time in markets raise their hands and step forward.

Currently I’m on the record for not liking the bullish side while recognizing the upside risk and I’ve outlined my rationale for that.

Some of the charts I’ve posted pertain to wedge patterns. I’ve outlined that they can keep going and going until something breaks, then it gets interesting. And it may be getting interesting now.

Take $NDX:

That’s a clean break. Does that mean no more new highs? Not necessarily as we saw in August/September new highs were still squeezed out, but it’s a warning sign especially since this rally remains technically uncorrected. But without larger confirmations the Combustion case is not off the table yet.


Uptrend broken, 2 failed attempts to get back above the January 2018 highs. One of the lower gaps filled today. That’s now the third rejection from this price zone and risks a major topping pattern.


Another wedge break in context of a notable uncorrected chart with a failure to make new highs at this stage.


What a pattern. Also seeing a wedge break and a failure to sustain new highs. I’ve questioned the sustainability of new highs just this weekend in Get Real.

I guess that made me permabear worthy. Oh it’s easy to criticize and hate on twitter. Especially when you don’t put out any analytical work of your own in front of tens of thousands of people. It’s easy to distort and be selective.

And it’s easy to hate on social media from the safety and comfort of your own home. A behavior most people wouldn’t engage in in real life for there would be consequences.

Khloe Kardashian actually had a good point on that the other day:

“Social media has made many of you comfortable with disrespecting people and not getting punched in the mouth for it”.

We live in a complex diverse world. We have all to decide how we want to spend our limited time.

I have no time, desire or interest in engaging in perma narratives or hate. My focus is on quality work. That’s what motivates me. Let others be motivated by hate.


And so far May is much better than April. Thank you very much 🙂

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50 replies »

  1. You’re the best analyst I know! And that’s saying something. Learn to love the trolls, their indignities and obvious lack of intellgence can be quite amusing.

  2. Sven, you are a model of rational analysis and discourse. With just a touch of healthy outrage at what our financial system has become. Keep on keeping’ it real.

  3. Markets reversed at $INDU’s 3rd attempt to overtake the 168% extension of the 2007 highs from the 2009 lows.

  4. I love your work, too close to call right now but you gotta love the silly sentiment =) Now it’s SO close, EW wave counts support from “one more high” LOL to SPX 4000, ect…. Need just a bit MOAR sentiment and maybe maybe one more on NDX then….. Well any open gaps left upside might be unfilled for 20-30 years….

  5. You sir are a Awesome person for sharing your valuable perspectives with explanations, backed by experience, technical analysis, intuition and a hint of comedy. I really appreciate your work. Trolls are who they are because they hate/disrespect themselves and therefore don’t understand how to love/respect others. Please keep up the amazing work. Honestly I’ve paid for services that were way worse. Thank you Sven!

  6. That strong bull trap outside reversal on tbe S&P500 has been invalidated 1.5 trading sessions later. Looks like the jawboning President, fickle Fed and under 35 yo wall Street professionals are having there cake and eating it too. Insanity still prevailing…. Its enough to make me seriously give up trading.

    • That’s not what the guy above was saying. Check the May 1st action. That was an outside reversal candle, suggesting a top…..and the fact that it happened when the index was trying to break out to new highs made it more significant (at the time).

  7. I continue to watch the China/Iran oil sanctions story. By late week there were rumblings that China was going to stop buying Iranian oil which might save the trade deal but cut off the Belt and Road plans legs. This is a gigantic strategic issue. If China actually throws Iran under the bus I believe we will have Combustion. If not then correction, or worse.
    I understand it is stupid to rely on fundamentals. Sorry.

  8. Pingback: Shattered!

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