As I promised yesterday on twitter below are some monthly chart closes that may be of interest. I’ll leave the analysis part for the weekly market update on Sunday and present these charts as observational here.
Before we run through the charts one factoid that really sticks out:
The global correction in October was brutal as it was historic.
Here’s the global market cap wipe off in just October:
$8 TRILLION. Poof. Gone. The largest drop since 2008.
The obvious question then is? Is the 2009 bull trend broken?
I can at least point to a warning sign here on $SPX:
Could it be false break that gets fixed this month? I suppose so it’s possible. Indeed, one could argue I should redraw the trend line to the true bottom wicks and one gets this picture:
Indeed other index charts did NOT break their trends:
Also not broken: The $OEX, the S&P 100:
One other notable save, the $SPX $TNX ratio chart:
Just in the knick of time they saved the neckline. Funny that.
But there are double tops and technical damage all over the place.
$SPX closed below the monthly 5 EMA and has broken its 2016 trend line:
The last few closes below the monthly 5EMA have produced follow through the next month.
Which brings me back to the 2007 comparison:
It all looks so damn similar doesn’t it?
Banks versus $SPX:
Bottomline: The trend is not dead, but bulls have a lot to prove. More this weekend.
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Categories: Market Analysis