Market Analysis

The Evidence

evidenceNext week will see the last Fed meeting and final OPEX of the year. Suffice to say it won’t be a boring week. We have a trade plan for it and I presume so do you. Whether you are bullish or bearish I think it’s fair to say that markets have a lot riding on not only next week, but how things are lining up for next year. Wall Street remains largely bullish although the risk of recession is rising at some investment houses and Janet Yellen is quick to dismiss these reports as they do not fit with the narrative of a rate hike.

Be that as it may, there are several charts that are continuing to raise major concerns and I wanted to take this moment to present these charts together in one post. And the primary concern is that markets are in the midst of a major topping process. But don’t take my word for it.

Let me just present the evidence and you can judge for yourself.

$SPX:$CPI

CPI

Stocks over their 200MA:

SPX 200

Guggenheim equal weight:

RSPW

Junk:

JNK

High Yield:

HYG

High/Lows

HL

Value Line Geometric index:

XVG

$NYSE:

NYSEM

Crude:

crude

$ES Weekly:

ESW

Small Caps weekly:

TFW

The cumulative message of all these charts: Things are far from well. Now one can choose to ignore all these charts and none of them suggest we see an immediate correction of size, however many of them suggest eery similarity to 2007/2008 in structure. And if this structure plays out the so called “Santa” rally may not be all that it’s cracked up to be.

I can’t say with certitude of course, but what does the evidence suggest? You tell me.

 

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5 replies »

  1. Thank you. Well done!

    From: NorthmanTrader To: marvin.thomey@sbcglobal.net Sent: Tuesday, December 8, 2015 10:27 AM Subject: [New post] The Evidence #yiv1738104121 a:hover {color:red;}#yiv1738104121 a {text-decoration:none;color:#0088cc;}#yiv1738104121 a.yiv1738104121primaryactionlink:link, #yiv1738104121 a.yiv1738104121primaryactionlink:visited {background-color:#2585B2;color:#fff;}#yiv1738104121 a.yiv1738104121primaryactionlink:hover, #yiv1738104121 a.yiv1738104121primaryactionlink:active {background-color:#11729E;color:#fff;}#yiv1738104121 WordPress.com | northmantrader posted: “Next week will see the last Fed meeting and final OPEX of the year. Suffice to say it won’t be a boring week. We have a trade plan for it and I presume so do you. Whether you are bullish or bearish I think it’s fair to say that markets have a lot riding o” | |

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