Well there ya go. Stocks made new highs, only took 13 days. Bulls are back all over the airwaves and new high targets are being reeled off again. Even Ralph and Dennis. Oh I do like to make fun of them, but deservedly so, their public calls have just been dreadful:
Look closely: The Ralph and Dennis show of complete disaster pic.twitter.com/OBpIJpF8el
— Northy (@NorthmanTrader) November 3, 2014
The message: Be cautious when listening to anybody about their certitudes. The fact is nothing in this business is for certain and the airwaves and social media are also filled with myths that seem to be self perpetuating. The most current one: Stocks have their best 6 months from November – April. Really? On the surface that seems to be true and now that Ralph and Dennis are all bullish again let’s buy new all time highs right?
Not so fast.
We’ve just had a massive 5 year bull market spurred on by central bankers and their cheap liquidity. November then must a be a great month or so everyone seems to be telling you. Let’s look at the actual facts:
Notice a trend? Even 2013, the super rally year, had a dip in early November. So given this established history is here and now the best place to buy?
Probably not. Does not mean we can’t get performance chasers and BOJ and ECB to push us even higher, but history does suggest a better buying opportunity yet to come…
Categories: Daily Market Brief