Markets – Macro – Technicals

Busting a Seasonality Myth

Well there ya go. Stocks made new highs, only took 13 days. Bulls are back all over the airwaves and new high targets are being reeled off again. Even Ralph and Dennis. Oh I do like to make fun of them, but deservedly so, their public calls have  just been dreadful:

The message: Be cautious when listening to anybody about their certitudes. The fact is nothing in this business is for certain and the airwaves and social media are also filled with myths that seem to be self perpetuating. The most current one: Stocks have their best 6 months from November – April. Really? On the surface that seems to be true and now that Ralph and Dennis are all bullish again let’s buy new all time highs right?

Not so fast.

We’ve just had a massive 5 year bull market spurred on by central bankers and their cheap liquidity. November then must a be a great month or so everyone seems to be telling you. Let’s look at the actual facts:







Notice a trend? Even 2013, the super rally year, had a dip in early November. So given this established history is here and now the best place to buy?


Probably not. Does not mean we can’t get performance chasers and BOJ and ECB to push us even higher, but history does suggest a better buying opportunity yet to come…



Tagged as: , , , ,


2 Responses »

  1. I like it.

    Believe the market wants to sell off…………….just waiting on the non-event election to really get going……….the Republican victory is baked in, that’s not a catalyst………….should it go the other way that would be a downside surprise………………..either way it sells off………..IMO

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

The material on this website is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof, and is subject to change without notice and does not constitute investment advice.
Home | About | Disclaimer | Contact
Copyright © 2013-2017 NorthmanTrader
The materials on this website may not be suitable for all investors and are not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any securities.