History you may say, may no longer apply. We are a happy central bank family after all. Yellen spoke last week and markets rose and the $VIX dropped back to low 13s on Friday.
I turn to darkness my old friend and consult the dormant $VIX and he showers me with a dose of reality and he points to his seasonal May rising with one singular message: A May $VIX in the 12-13 range does not exist:
A minimum price target of $20 for the $VIX is in the low range of its historical price record. And so again the market lures me with promises of being different this time with history no longer applying. She is a beautiful deceiver that one and I suspect she will put on quite a show the next few days, but I’m very aware of her fake-outs and delivery of false tidings.